OklahomaSkies.Net

Plains Storm Season To Debut Next Week?

2012-03-09T17:29:00.002-06:00

It's looking quite possible that we'll be having a more official first chase of the season late next week/weekend if the long range models are to be believed. Before I dive into the details I wanted to update you all on the weather situation through the weekend.

The series of images I'm going to show are from the 12z European model(ECMWF). Looking at the top left panel we have the 500mb chart showing the jet stream pattern 18,000ft above our heads. The black lines are isobars or changes in air pressure and the shaded regions represent atmospheric energy. Then to our right we have the surface features(areas of low and high pressures) along with our critical thickness values. The bottom left shows the jet stream in the lower levels or about 5,000ft above our heads, and last but not least the temperature at this level to the bottom right. These graphics are a bit more complicated to understand as opposed to the colorful maps you're used to seeing but this is one of many versions of models I look at when forecasting the weather.

Now that you have some sort of an understanding of what we're looking at, this is the 4 panel ECMWF chart for Saturday morning at 12z(7am). During this time we can see our meandering closed low responsible for yesterday's messy weather(and more precipitation that will follow tomorrow and Sunday) has re-organized to our west. The models even at the short term have been struggling the past few days on what to do with this storm and are finally at the last minute getting a better handle calling now for the system to sort of re-load tonight/tomorrow and then finally open up and eject Sunday. We should see another round of rain/storms(some of it heavy) develop first across the south and west tonight/tomorrow afternoon as moisture/lift increases and then spread north and east through Saturday night. We are experiencing a lull in the activity today as the system retrograded and drier air filtered in from yesterday's frontal passage.

Same model different time frame we see the upper low becoming an open wave and ejecting to the northeast on Sunday morning. Rain will end from southwest to northeast as drier low level air again overspreads the area in the wake of the system. Rainfall totals from this next batch of precipitation could be between 1 and 3 inches with the heavier totals east. Once we get past Sunday our weather will become much warmer and breezy with temperatures forecast to be in the 70's/80's for Spring breakers!

For quite some time now, the longer range models have been alluding to major amplification of the upper pattern developing a long wave trough out west late next week. The above 4 panel chart is valid for Sunday morning on March 18th and a significant trough can be seen digging into the southwest. If this were to verify and it being March we would be talking about a significant severe weather event for much of the central/southern plains around this time. The GFS is very similar to the ECMWF. Of course being that this event is 200+ hours out a lot of this is pure speculation especially given how poorly the models did with our current system. Nevertheless we are watching the potential for some chase worthy setups coming to the plains late next week and I'll certainly be keeping you posted throughout the upcoming week.

More Drought Relief For The S. Plains

2012-03-08T18:02:00.000-06:00

Welcome to March! There are many things us meteorologists/storm chasers look forward to during March; It's the start of meteorological Spring, daylight saving time(that extra hour of daylight), and perhaps more importantly the start of our Spring storm season here in the southern plains! March is also well known for its wild temperature swings and bi-polar weather and today was no exception. It's hard to believe we had temperature's in the 70's just yesterday looking at this map.

The strong cold front responsible for today's cold weather can be seen moving east and south across east Texas and southern Arkansas where temperatures ahead of the front in much of Louisiana were still in the 60's/70's. Behind the front we have temperatures in the 30's/40's which have also been aided by widespread cloud cover/precipitation.

A slow moving upper level low currently stationed over the southwest United States will bring reoccurring rounds of rain/thunderstorms to much of the southern plains through the weekend. The initial round of precipitation has been coming to an end this evening leaving us with this on the rainfall map.

Many locations across the state received close to and over an inch of rain since last night. Even southwest Oklahoma(where the drought conditions are most severe in the state) has been enjoying some much needed moisture with Altus, Tipton, and Hobart receiving 1.02", .76". and 1.61" of rain respectively. The even better news? We'll likely be adding to these totals over the next few days.

The 18z NAM model looks very optimistic for us in the southern plains showing widespread 1-3"+ rain through the 84 hour period. If this were to verify it would bode very well for parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas that are currently in a severe-exceptional drought. We'd also likely see the drought eliminated here in central Oklahoma with a surplus of moisture even! Graphics like this are very encouraging to see and I'm hopeful we'll be seeing a lot more of this throughout the upcoming Spring/Summer.

I should also mention that this forecast is very sensitive to the movement/evolution of aforementioned upper level low. The GFS for example is focused farther east(around the Arklatex region) with the heavier amounts of rain. Closed lows are notorious for causing forecasting woes which we have seen a lot of this winter as modeling usually has a hard time with their structure. The latest model suites have been trending towards a slower progression of the upper level low which would favor the westward shift of the heavier rains the NAM is showing. I'll continue to refine the forecast and provide updates as needed. After this weekend a return to shortwave ridging will commence and temperatures will warm considerably with 70's/80's forecast by mid week. The longer range models are showing a long wave trough developing out west by next weekend potentially signaling some severe weather down the road. More later.

Impressive Cold Core Supercells In KS/NE

2012-02-28T18:03:00.003-06:00

Tornado watches are in effect for parts of Nebraska and Kansas this evening as a broken line of supercells have initiated along a eastward advancing dryline. A potent storm system is responsible for this activity and also a major winter storm underway across parts of the northern plains/upper midwest tonight/tomorrow.

A mid level dry slot has prevented more robust development into Oklahoma this afternoon but that could change this evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline providing better forcing. Storms have recently initiated as far south as Medicine Lodge, KS. Parameters are quite favorable for severe weather this evening and if storms are able to develop/sustain themselves all modes of severe weather will be a distinct possibility.

High Winds & Severe Storms

2012-02-20T12:24:00.002-06:00

Another high wind event is shaping up for the Panhandles/Southern Plains as a pressure gradient strengthens coupled with strong mixing towards the surface behind a dryline/cold front. High wind warnings are in effect for much of the Texas panhandle and the southern high plains where winds could gust between 65-70mph today. Wind advisories are in effect for most of Oklahoma as well where winds gusting to 50mph or more are expected. If dryline mixing occurs faster than anticipated, higher wind gusts will be possible mainly west of I-35.

In addition to the strong winds today there is also the potential for some severe weather primarily later this afternoon and early this evening.

The SPC has upgraded areas along and east of I-35 from central Kansas to central Oklahoma to a categorical slight risk for severe weather. While the thermodynamic environment is not overly impressive with 45-55F max surface dew points and minor surface cape of >750jk/g the kinematic and dynamic environment is quite the opposite with a sharp negative tilt shortwave trough providing a belt of strong westerlies over the southern plains along with very steep mid and low level lapse rates.

500mb heights via 12z NAM for 3pm this afternoon showing a sharp negatively tilted shortwave trough providing an intense jet streak across the southern plains. If greater surface moisture/instability was realized today then we could be dealing with an outbreak of severe weather.

A few brief tornadoes will be possible given the steep lapse rates mentioned and cold 500mb levels near the upper low. If I were chasing today I would target closer to the low pressure system near the KS/OK border this afternoon and evening.

SPC has delineated a 5% risk of tornadoes within the slight risk area this afternoon/early evening. Supercells will be low topped and tornadoes relatively short lived in nature. In other words today is a cold core setup versus your classic supercell setup.

I won't be chasing today unfortunately but I will definitely be keeping an eye on things this afternoon/evening and will update accordingly.

Snowfall Totals From Sunday Night

2012-02-13T19:08:00.001-06:00

Sunday night's storm was much advertised and pretty much lived up to its expectations with widespread 1-3" commonplace. 3-5" amounts fell across much of southwest, western, and northern Oklahoma where snow was a bit heavier and longer in duration. Oklahoma City officially received 1.8" at the airport and I measured 2.3" at my house in Moore.

Much of the snow melted today, however temperatures are expected to fall below freezing in many areas tonight so any residual moisture from today's snow melt may refreeze. Temperatures will warm considerably tomorrow and we'll see our highs return to the 60's Wednesday in time for our next system which looks to be all rain.

Early Morning Update

2012-02-12T01:05:00.003-06:00

I am up WAY past my bed time but I have been looking over a slew of model data trying to put together the most accurate forecast possible for tonight/tomorrow's winter weather event. I wanted to show you all what we call "forecast soundings" generated by Bufkit for certain time frames of this event. Let's start with a sounding for 5pm this evening from the WRF model. This sounding is out of KOUN or Norman, Oklahoma.

A few things I wanted to point out so you can read this better. First of all the lines going diagonally represent changes in temperature with the negative numbers being temperatures below freezing and the positive above. The 0 line is our freezing line and is an important factor when forecasting types of precipitation. The horizontal lines are changes in height in our atmosphere. Basically a sounding is a diagram of our atmosphere and provides a lot of crucial weather data to forecasters. Wind barbs are displayed to the far right and the green squiggly line is our dew point/wet bulb temperature and the red squiggly line is our air temperature. These measurements are taken from the surface and aloft.

So looking at this sounding, the first thing I can tell you is that there is a lot of dry air in the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere during this time(5pm Sunday). We can also see that our surface temperature is above freezing. During this time no precipitation is falling in central Oklahoma(however it will be developing and building in out west).

Fast forward to about 1am on Monday morning and we notice several changes. Firstly you can see the red and green lines are much closer together. This represents a saturated column and precipitation(in the form of snow) is falling during this time. Surface temperatures are also just below freezing along with the lower and middle levels. The blue dots to the left show that light to moderate snow is falling during this time here in central Oklahoma.

Looking at a different model(the SREF ensemble) and fast forwarding to 10am Monday morning. Things have changed again and are becoming a bit bit more complicated. Notice how the lines sort of arc to the right between 5 and 10 thousand feet? This is showing us a warm nose(or warm air advection) in the middle layers of our atmosphere(generally the 850mb level). Also you can see towards the surface temperatures are near or just below freezing. This is a sounding supportive of freezing rain and we can see the red dot to the left telling us this. How fast the cold air not only the surface but in the middle levels is eroded will make a huge difference between precipitation types and accumulations. These series of soundings are showing a transition from snow to freezing rain/sleet from Sunday night to Monday morning which is what I've been saying all along for Oklahoma City. Some of the models are colder and others warmer. This is just one example of a modeled sounding we look at when forecasting winter weather(we also use them during severe weather forecasting as well including the hodograph which I will explain in a later blog), and shows you the complexity of making a winter weather forecast. There is A LOT to take into account.

To sum it all up I am still expecting a mixed bag of winter precipitation for much of the state, starting out as snow here in OKC before transitioning to a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain Monday morning and eventually transitioning to a cold rain or drizzle as temperatures warm above freezing Monday afternoon. How fast these temperatures warm will have an impact on the dominant precip type and accumulations. This sequence of transitions will likely mean minor accumulations of snow and ice for us. If temperatures are colder than forecast we could be dealing with heavier accumulations of snow or the other way around. Right now I expect 1-2" of snow/sleet for us and perhaps .10" of ice. This is certainly enough to cause some problems on the road ways by Monday morning. Farther north where the low level cold will hold on a bit longer, heavier accumulations of mainly snow are expected. I anticipate 2 to perhaps as high as 4" of snow to fall generally west of I-44 and north of I-40.

I'll have updates on my facebook page throughout the day and try to post an update here a bit later today as well so stay tuned!

Winter Storm To Bring Variety Of Precip Types To S. Plains

2012-02-10T23:26:00.003-06:00

I use the term "winter storm" loosely in this case because snowfall/ice accumulations look to be relatively minor but enough to cause slick and hazardous driving conditions late Sunday night and for a time Monday morning. In other words, this is NOT a major storm but it will be a solid advisory type event.

Projected precipitation types/amounts for Sunday night into Monday morning.(this is not an official product of the National Weather Service office in Norman but rather MY opinion).

If you like us on facebook you saw the first update I put out early this afternoon. I have since updated it and have adjusted snow/ice totals slightly upwards. I need to remind people that a lot of the times I put my own graphics on here because I do a lot of my own forecasting. The views and expressions of this blog are of my own and not necessarily of the NWS so keep in mind that these are not products of the NWS even though I do use their graphics occasionally as well. Moving on, this is one of those systems where the temperature profiles are going to play a large role in who sees what and how much. A shallow Arctic air mass is filtering into the southern plains this evening and will make for the coldest day of the winter season tomorrow with highs likely not making it above freezing here in OKC. Prevailing north winds and strong cold air advection will make for rather low wind chill values even in the afternoon tomorrow so please take heed and bundle up if you are going to be outdoors. This cold but shallow air mass is what is going to set the stage for winter precipitation in our area beginning Sunday afternoon out west, most areas Sunday night, and ending from west to east Monday morning/afternoon. Sunday will see temperatures not much warmer than tomorrow and as lift/moisture increases ahead of the approaching system we will see precipitation break out first across west Texas and the panhandle region and then begin developing/spreading east Sunday night. Initially the entire atmospheric column will be cold enough to support snow but as southerly winds transport warm/moist air above the shallow cold dome at the surface we will start to see our middle and lower level temperatures increase and this is when the threat of sleet and freezing rain come into play. How fast these levels warm and how long we stay below freezing at the surface will mean all the difference between problems on Monday morning's drive to work and school or little to no impacts. I believe we will see a wintry mix of precipitation types from I-44 and south and east with snow being the predominant type north. The above graphic also shows accumulations and you will notice that they are not significant HOWEVER the pink shaded region will need to pay close attention to the forecast as .25" of ice is enough to cause problems with trees/power lines and while I do not expect an ice storm or long lasting impacts some people may deal with the threat of power outages. The latest 00z model data has come in showing slightly more precipitation across south central and southeastern Oklahoma with surface temperatures dangerously close to freezing. This is the area that I would closely monitor for the potential of more significant icing if temperatures do not warm as forecast. I've said before that a lot of the times the models tend to underestimate the depth of these Arctic air masses and can be too quick to erode them at the surface. This is a trend that I will be watching very closely. For the metro I expect more sleet/snow than freezing rain but again we'll need to watch those mid level temperatures.

I continue to advise people to pay attention to the forecast this weekend as this is a developing situation and things can and will change!

The Coldest Air So Far This Season This Weekend

2012-02-09T22:13:00.003-06:00

It was another dreary cold day across much of the sooner state with highs struggling to make it out of the low 40's in most spots. Places in northwest Oklahoma received more snow this afternoon and evening and temperatures held around the freezing mark much of the day.

Another quick moving storm system has brought widespread precipitation to the state today with a band of light to moderate rainfall impacting the metro area this evening. Temperatures have remained above freezing so most of this has been in the liquid form. However I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow try to mix in as colder/drier air filters in from the north and west. Rain and snow should be largely ending by midnight for central, northern, and western Oklahoma.

Friday will see temperatures once more below climatology as a chilly air mass remains intact. By Friday evening we should start to see the leading edge of an much colder, Arctic air mass begin nosing into the state. This air mass will overspread all of the southern plains this weekend and Saturday looks to be a very cold day, probably the coldest of the season.

1040mb high building south into the southern plains Saturday afternoon likely resulting in some of the coldest air of the winter season so far for parts of Oklahoma.

Temperatures may struggle to reach 32 degrees for a high in Oklahoma City Saturday with strong cold air advection and blustery north winds will make it feel even colder. The last time Oklahoma City had a high temperature below freezing was back in early December 2011.

The fresh cold will likely set the stage for winter precipitation Sunday into Monday for the area however models continue to struggle with numerous aspects of the upcoming system including precipitation type and how much. The European model remains the coldest of the models and the most aggressive with winter precipitation across our area while the GFS/NAM are more aggressive in eroding the arctic air at the surface with temperatures above freezing by late Monday morning resulting in minimal accumulations of snow. I feel a combination of all precipitation types will be present during this time frame but with models portraying a progressive system and relatively light QPF I am not overly concerned about a major winter storm at this time. Some accumulations of ice and/or snow are inevitable however. It remains to early to speculate on how much snow or ice any one location will see but folks should pay particularly close attention to the Sunday night/Monday morning time frame. Remember even the smallest accumulations of ice can cause problems on the roads. We should know a lot more tomorrow and especially Saturday. I should remind you also that predicting winter weather is far more challenging than severe storms and any small change in detail can recreate the whole storm. It is Oklahoma after all.

Tides Are Turning On Mild Winter Pattern

2012-02-08T21:03:00.003-06:00

Sustained periods of cold and snow have been hard to come by this Winter in the U.S. given a pattern lacking high latitude blocking and a predominantly positive NAO. However the tables are turning in what appears to be a major flip in the overall weather pattern pointing towards stormier and colder conditions across the country for the month of February.

I discussed about two weeks ago the unusually mild winter the U.S. has had so far, especially up north but I also mentioned how February looked promising for Winter's return(or long overdue arrival more like it).

With last weekends system bringing much awaited snowfall across much of the central Plains we have already seen a larger percentage of the U.S. covered in snow(29% as of today) this month compared to January(15%).

Bringing us back to home, this week has already been noticeably colder than previous weeks where we had several mornings with lows in the 50's and afternoon highs in the 60's and 70's. I actually storm chased last Friday down in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas(didn't see much besides hail and a lot of rain). Today we saw a high of only 37 degrees which is BELOW our normal high of 53 for a change(of course this was also aided by a thick blanket of cloud cover that held on much of the day), and some places even saw between 1 and 3 inches of snow yesterday in northwest Oklahoma!

Tomorrow will see moderating temperatures, however a fast moving shortwave trough will bring additional cloud cover and precipitation to the area. After Friday the models are advertising that a shallow Arctic air mass over central Canada will come south this weekend while a storm system takes shape to our west. A scenario like this usually spells trouble for our area as this is how most of our winter storms tend to evolve.

Now these next few graphics are depictions of what could go down this weekend, particularly Sunday into Monday. Firstly we have the ECMWF(pictured above) showing the upper air pattern, surface features, and mid level temperatures for 12z Monday morning(or around 7am). Starting above left we can see what appears to be a low amplitude shortwave approaching the southern plains. To the right we have the surface features showing a broad area of Arctic high pressure dominating the eastern half of the U.S. Notice how the black lines appear closer together across the plains? This is a pressure gradient developing in response to the close proximity of high and low pressures. This also depicts a strong southerly return flow above the surface pumping in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico so this system will have plenty of moisture to work with. You can also see a dashed red line on the map. This is the traditional rain/snow line. Since the ECMWF is only showing time periods in 6 hour increments, it's hard to see what's going on between 12z and 00z. So while it appears that the 540 line is north of us, in between these periods it's likely somewhere in Oklahoma. At the bottom right we see the 850mb temps or the temperature a few thousand feet above our heads. The solid black line is the 0 degree line and it appears to be somewhere south of I-40. The green blobs are QPF. In layman terms the ECMWF is showing snow in Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday.

Now that you have some background information about how to interpret these maps, let me show you the CMC or Canadian model for the same time frame(12z Monday). It too shows a wintry scenario with snow the most likely form of precipitation.

And last but not least, the GFS. The GFS is much more aggressive with a mid level warm nose and erodes the shallow cold dome at the surface favoring an all rain event. My issue with this is that the GFS has a bias in modifying Arctic air masses too quickly especially shallow ones. The other operational models have been consistently colder than the GFS and for a good reason. The air across Canada is quite cold and while I don't think we will see teens and 20's for highs this weekend, temperatures in the low 30's are feasible and the fresh snow pack across the central plains will help refrigerate some of this air. The GFS solution opens the door for the possibility of freezing rain and/or sleet with a warm layer in the 850mb level and shallow cold layer at the surface(a classic setup for freezing rain or sleet depending on the thickness of the warm layer aloft).

It's definitely way too early to get specific on details but the overall message is that there is an increasing potential for a winter storm to impact our area this weekend and I am watching it closely. These models will likely change several times over the next few days so I'm not going to put too much emphasis on one particular run. However I do feel that the European model is a bit closer to reality in regards to the overall pattern that is setting up and plus it's rate of consistency is hard to ignore. The next week or two is looking quite active with several systems taking aim at the southern plains and with an increasingly colder surface pattern coming into play, it's only a matter of time before at least one or two of these systems tap into enough cold air to create some problems for us down the road. At least we are seeing a pattern aiding us in keeping the drought on the run. Stay tuned!

Severe Storms Possible Tonight/Friday

2012-02-02T14:35:00.001-06:00

There is a slight risk of severe weather mainly for this evening/tonight across parts of the Texas panhandle, western north Texas, and southwest Oklahoma.

A storm system gathering strength over the central rockies will carve an impressive shortwave trough into the southern plains this evening into tomorrow spreading about 60-75knots of southwesterly shear across a developing warm sector over the southern plains. More than adequate amounts of instability and modest low level moisture along with the impressive wind fields will provide an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms later this evening and overnight tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate between 21-00z(4-6pm) along a dry line over the Texas panhandle into southwest Texas and gather strength as they progress east into the warm sector across the eastern Texas panhandle. All facets of severe weather will be possible this evening but the tornado threat will be maximized most likely near and just after dark as the low level jet intensifies.

The most likely area to see more significant severe weather tonight, including tornadoes will be over a small area of western north Texas, the southeastern Texas panhandle and far southwest Oklahoma or generally east of Lubbock towards Childress, Altus, and Fredrick.

For us in Oklahoma City, thunderstorm chances will increase markedly late this evening and overnight as activity congeals into a complex of thunderstorms and progresses west to east across the state. Severe hail/wind will be possible into the overnight hours. The threat for severe weather will expand farther east to include much of Oklahoma tomorrow as the system begins to eject ENE from the area and a frontal boundary advances across the area. I think tomorrow's severe weather threat will be significantly hindered by overnight convection/cloud cover which will limit instability thus keeping chances of more significant severe weather low. However very cold mid levels and favorable wind profiles will support a continued hail threat into tomorrow.

Follow my facebook page for frequent updates on any severe weather occurring in and around our area tonight.

The Winter(or lack thereof) So Far

2012-01-28T21:59:00.000-06:00

The complete lack of widespread snow/cold across the country this winter has many asking whether or not mother nature is skipping seasons! The previous two winters of 09/10 and 10/11 were both widely remembered for their widespread and record breaking cold/snow.

The meteorological winter so far has seen most of the country with well above normal temperatures and below normal snow cover. While there has been brief intrusions of Arctic air, they have been just that; brief.

So what gives? Sustained cold is unlikely across the U.S. when we have a predominantly positive NAO/AO. Mild winters are not uncommon during La Nina(the equatorial cooling of the Pacific and the opposite of its cousin El Nino), especially across the south and east, but this year we have seen an exceptionally progressive and rather zonal flow pattern aided by a positive AO keeping the Polar express at bay across the northern latitudes.

The Arctic and North American Oscillations(called AO/NAO for short) are usually key indicators of the upper air pattern during the winter months in North America. The last two winters were characterized by abnormal amounts of high latitude blocking(aided in part by the intense warming of the stratosphere which can be intensified by the eruptions of high latitude volcanoes which was also the case) and a resulting extremely negative AO/NAO. I have explained before that when these oscillations are in their negative phase, the pattern is most conducive for bitterly cold air masses across the northern latitudes to be dislodged and aimed towards the southern and eastern U.S. You can see the amplification of the pattern during these phases on the above right image. During the positive phases the flow becomes more zonal with a progressive west to east flow keeping much of the cold air bottled up across Canada and/or Alaska and this has been the case so far this winter. We can still see cold spells this far south but not to the extent as if we were in the negative phases(i.e. sub zero cold across the northern and central plains with highs below freezing as far south as Texas.) Also during these phases we are least likely to experience ice or snow this far south due to mild Pacific air overwhelming the pattern and the jet stream being displaced farther north. This winter we have seen numerous occasions where lows would cut off from the flow aloft and meander across the far southwest and southern plains bringing us welcome rains and drought relief. If colder air was more readily available we could easily be having one of the snowiest winters on record here in Oklahoma City. There has been snow in the panhandles and southwest Texas several times due to the result of cold core lows in which the upper level low produces its own cold air by evaporative cooling(something to be discussed in a later blog).

The AO has recently gone negative, however this on its own is not enough to allow Arctic air to penetrate deep into the U.S. The AO in its negative phase causes the polar winds to shift to the south and a build up of higher pressures over the pole which in turn allows bitterly cold air to develop across usually the northwestern territories of Canada and Alaska. Lows this morning in Alaska where anywhere from 45-75 degrees BELOW zero! If there was one place where Winter has been present, it is Alaska where they have been enduring brutal cold/snow this year.

Bringing us back the the image above you can also see that the NAO has become neutral. We typically want to see the NAO negative in order to allow a cross polar flow to develop where we have the jet stream originating from the high latitudes and then cutting a trough across the eastern half of the U.S. putting the plains in a northwest flow. This usually allows Arctic air to come south bound and makes us more prone to Arctic outbreaks and ice/snow.

As we approach February, there is building evidence that we may be headed towards a major pattern shift in where conditions will start to become more favorable for widespread cold and perhaps increasing chances for snow/ice in our future. One computer model seems to suggest just that beginning as early as next weekend for us. We'll be monitoring closely next week!

Significant Winter Storm For Parts Of The S. Plains Mon/Tue

2011-12-17T20:06:00.004-06:00

It's becoming more and more likely that areas from the TX/OK Panhandle the northwest quarter of Oklahoma and much of southern and central Kansas are going to be dealing with heavy snow and blowing snow Monday night into Tuesday.

A winter storm watch has been posted for nearly all of the OK/TX Panhandle, far northwest Oklahoma, and much of southern and central Kansas. It is in these areas that significant snow accumulations of 6-12"(locally higher) are expected.

A large and potent upper level storm system was still spinning powerfully just offshore the Baja of California. This system is expected to track SSE into the southwestern U.S. before ejecting northeast through the southern plains early next week. While modeling has come into much better agreement on the track of this system, it should be noted that it is still possible that the track of this system fluctuates north or south as the system actually makes landfall tonight and more data is retrieved. It is not uncommon for systems of this nature to make last minute deviations in track and this is why residents even southeast of the watch area are encouraged to pay close attention to the forecast. This could be a close call for areas near I-44.

One model's interpretation(the 18z NAM) of snowfall amounts by Tuesday evening. A large swath of 6-12"+ is being depicted from the Panhandles and northeast through central Kansas. These areas will experience a high impact winter storm with blowing/drifting snow and limited visibility.

For us in Oklahoma City, mainly rain is anticipated and some of it may be heavy. Models are very generous with QPF amounts showing widespread 1-3" rainfall totals across the area. This would undoubtedly eliminate the drought from I-35 and east and call for significantly improving conditions west. We could see snow even here in the metro Tuesday morning however accumulations if any are expected to be very light. You can see the model above indicating some light accumulations as far south and east as I-44.

I'll have a new update tomorrow.

Flip Flop! The Games The Models Play

2011-12-15T18:51:00.001-06:00

This pattern is really one that is hard for a lot of forecasters to grasp and the models are proving time and time again that they are simply clueless as to what is going on. Why is there so much uncertainty? The pattern consists of a progressive northern stream and stubborn cut off lows. The closed low has really favored the southwest this fall and has provided relief to the drought stricken plains despite the dire forecasts. These lows oftentimes have a mind of their own and are slow to eject as is the case with this next system. Since the system is not part of the mainstream and is practically sitting by itself the modeling cannot grasp it properly and they will continue to fluctuate back and forth with the track of this system each run until it is sampled better. This will hopefully be achieved by the weekend.

Another and perhaps more important factor is the utter lack of Arctic air in the overall pattern at this point which is why there has been little snow cover across the U.S. A predominant positive AO and little to no high latitude blocking is largely to blame. Remember the last couple of winters featured a significant amount of blocking and predominantly negative AO/NAO which is yet to be seen this year. However there may be a SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) event about to occur which will lead to the development and eventual displacement of polar air south into the U.S. next month. More on this later. So until we get a good fetch of Arctic air entrained into the pattern, significant winter storms this far south will be hard to come by which is why I have my doubts that next week's system will be a prolific snow/ice maker... at least for Oklahoma. Dynamically this system could produce enough cold air(cold core) or pull from a source region of highly modified canadian air across the northwest and northern plains to allow for snow. In this case the track of the system is what's going to mean all the difference between who see's what and how much.

I went ahead and made a rough sketch of what is expected AS OF NOW. In today's runs the GFS has retreated farther north with the track of this storm and the ECMWF has flipped back south but still keeping most of the snow across the northwest part of the state. I really think this will be mainly a rain event with snow possible on the backside across the panhandles and the northwest parts of Oklahoma. If this system tracks farther south then this could shift south. It can go both ways which is why I encourage you to pay close attention to the forecast the next few days so there are no surprises.

By late next week the models reload the western trough with a new system developing over the baja of California. This would lead to increasing precipitation chances again Thursday through the holiday weekend for our area after a short reprieve Wednesday. Once again there doesn't appear to be any air masses of arctic origin for this system to tap into which would mean primarily all rain for us. The way it looks right now our chances of a white Christmas are next to nothing. :( I will continue to watch closely.

Watching The Next Big Storm...

2011-12-14T20:23:00.000-06:00

Today continued a stretch of dreary and rainy weather days although somewhat milder than what has been experienced recently. How does the rainfall over the past week add up?

Not a lot. The rain has been mostly sporadic and light with many places receiving generally less than 1/2" of rain. The "heaviest" rainfall amounts fell across southeast Oklahoma and a significant portion of that came with today's thunderstorm activity. Temperatures today were also rather mild across the state with highs in the 60's even approaching 70 down south. With the added humidity and even a few thunderstorms today felt a lot like spring and a lot less like late fall/early winter. We'll see a cold front come through tonight bringing an end to the springlike warmth.

My attention is then turned to late weekend/early next week when yet another system is expected to affect our weather and this one looks to be problematic.

There is again much uncertainty regarding the track of this next system which will have major implications on what type of precipitation we will see and how much. Right now it varies from a major winter storm to an all rain event. The GFS is the farthest south with this system(which is a big change from yesterday's runs which where more north) and the GEM and ECMWF models are farther north(the ECMWF initially had a southern track...). Until we get a better consensus on where this system is going then it's going to be fairly difficult to specify just what is going to happen however, there is a lot going on in this pattern and this system could be fairly significant.

One thing I do want to point out is there is no true Arctic air entrained in this pattern as of now which means this system will be pulling from a source region characterized by recycled continental/Canadian air which is at this time not very cold but perhaps cold enough for wintry weather if the system tracks far enough south. Time will tell so stay tuned.

Active Weather Pattern For Second Half Of December

2011-12-11T22:10:00.001-06:00

I promised you guys a blog this evening and I'm sticking to my word so here goes.

I'm watching several potentially high impact storm systems that will affect our weather starting Tuesday and then through the Christmas period and the last two systems could potentially affect travelers.

Closed upper level storm system organizing out west(the theme this fall/winter seems to consist of big southwest cut off lows) will translate east Tue/Wed bringing widespread rain and even thunderstorms to the area. There will be enough instability combined with favorable dynamics to warrant the possibility of a few marginally severe storms in the area on Wednesday. Hail and wind will be the primary concerns.

By the weekend the models diverge significantly on a new upper level low developing over the southwest conus and a surge of modified Arctic air from the north. The European the last few days was highly suggestive of a significant winter storm for our area next weekend with the GFS much warmer in the lower levels with an all rain event. Today both models are warmer with surface temperatures but suggest that early periods Saturday and Sunday could have some freezing rain. Right now this is a crapshoot forecast at this point as a lot WILL change between now and the weekend. I just found it a good idea to throw the word out now just in case since high profile traveling will begin taking place next weekend.

A third system will arrive just in time for Christmas and again could pose problems concerning wintry weather. These last two systems definitely bear watching and I will likely have much more detailed blogs in the coming days. It's one of those situations where you want to keep abreast of the latest forecasts. Stay tuned.

Interesting Developments

2011-12-04T23:21:00.001-06:00

Are you ready for this? It now appears that our snow chances are on the increase again...

I like using this radar during the winter months as it shows the precip types(something that is lacking on grlevel 3 even though it is a great program). My initial worries yesterday were that the models were possibly underestimating the integrity of the upper level disturbance and guess what, they were! Rain and occasional rumbles of thunder over northeastern Texas and Arkansas continues to lift northeast with the initial wave that moved through yesterday. A large area of lift ahead of a secondary wave of energy from the main upper level low still situated over the southwest conus is resulting in renewed precipitation in the form of snow across much of west Texas and the panhandle. This is what could affect our weather very late tonight and tomorrow. I have highlighted the area of concern in pink where I think has an increasing potential for light to moderate snow overnight and for part of Monday. Right now it looks to be a borderline advisory event with snow totals averaging around an inch or so and I do not anticipate travel problems tomorrow morning as any accumulation would be confined to elevated and grassy surfaces.

This forecast is supported by the high resolution short term models which are fairly generous with widespread precipitation in our area early Monday and radar trends. Temperatures were already below freezing across the northwest half of Oklahoma and falling into the mid 30's in central Oklahoma. The trends will definitely continue to be monitored overnight.

To Snow Or Not To Snow That Is The Question...

2011-12-03T16:43:00.001-06:00

This has honestly been one of the most difficult systems to forecast in my limited 4 years of model watching and I am amazed at how much disparity remains in the modeling less than 48 hours away from an event.

The same models that were going crazy with a snow storm in our area Sunday night/Monday now have us getting very little if ANY wintry precipitation during this same time frame. They have the system digging further south and drier air becoming entrenched into it due to a 1045mb high aggressively building into the area from the northwest. Right now snow amounts look to be less than 2" in a narrow band generally along and southeast of I-44 and that could be pushing it even.

As much as I would like to stick a fork in this system and await the next one I can't. Tonight and tomorrow's runs will be much more revealing in terms of just WHAT and how MUCH we will be receiving Sunday night and Monday. As drastically as they changed today they can easily go the other way around tomorrow. It's likely going to be one of those "last minute" storms where we simply just don't know until the day of the event. It's frustrating.

There will be a new post after the 00z runs tonight. Maybe we'll know more.

And Suddenly A Winter Storm Is Coming!?

2011-12-02T23:08:00.001-06:00

What a difference a DAY makes when it comes to modeling. Last night the models had the slightest hint at any potential wintry precipitation Sunday/Monday and today they're showing a full blown winter storm. Of course the media is hyping out and we are now encouraged to stock up on milk and bread and gas up our tanks cause it's gonna be snowmageddon!(that is if you believe the NAM...).

What you haven't seen the NAM? Ok I'll show you the current run.

Now before you panic and start buying out your local grocery store let me remind you that this is the same exact model that had absolutely NOTHING last night and this is going to change several more times before Monday. The GFS has about 2-4" of snow centered from about I-40 south. So why is the NAM going haywire with snow totals? The NAM has more precipitation and the GFS has a lot of dry air filtering in from the north and west during the day Monday limiting lift. These totals are brought to you by temperatures just barely around the freezing mark. If we are about 2-5 degrees colder at the surface and the 2-3" of QPF the NAM has pans out then snowmageddon sounds like an appropriate name for this system.

Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty amongst the models and I would be foolish to make a confident forecast off of them tonight. I can tell you however that the potential for a winter storm with significant snow accumulations is on the table and tomorrow will tell us a lot more about what we can expect. I WILL be giving you guys a much more detailed post tomorrow and for now I advise you to pay close attention to the forecast the next few days and be PREPARED for some sort of wintry weather Sun/Mon.

In the short term we have widespread light rain with pockets of moderate rain continuing to develop and overspread the state. This is in part to an increasing low level jet/warm air advection atop of a shallow Canadian air mass at the surface. Surface temperatures are near freezing over parts of western and northwestern Oklahoma so some of this precip may fall as freezing rain during the onset. However as the low level jet continues to strengthen the cold layer at the surface will erode and temperatures are expected to rise tonight with all locations above freezing by morning. As the first wave of energy passes tomorrow we can expected widespread rain and some of it may be heavy. Temperatures will be WELL above freezing so no travel problems expected for Bedlam... just bring the rain gear if your going to the game. Late tomorrow night is when the front will surge back to the south with a renewed shot of colder air and this will set the stage for the POTENTIAL winter storm Sunday night into Monday as the main upper level low ejects from the southwest. More tomorrow!

A Messy Forecast

2011-12-01T23:00:00.001-06:00

Oh the challenges of winter weather forecasting! This weekend's system is expected to bring a variety of weather types to the southern plains and it's making for a complicated forecast for the forecaster.

A legitimately cold air mass is entering the southern plains tonight behind a sagging cold front which is currently located across southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures behind the front have fallen abruptly from the 60's we had this afternoon to the 30's and 40's. Temperatures over western and northwestern Oklahoma have fallen steadily this evening and are approaching the freezing mark in many locations. As lift increases tonight ahead of the approaching system located over the southwest U.S. light precipitation is expected to break out. Radar echos have already developed over southeast Oklahoma and north Texas and this activity will increase and expand further north and west as the night wears on. With temperatures hovering near or slightly below freezing we could be dealing with some light freezing drizzle/rain over parts of southwest and west central Oklahoma late tonight. I don't anticipate significant ice accumulations if at all with this activity but it will be monitored nonetheless.

The biggest impacts from this particular storm are going to be over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into the southern high plains where significant accumulations of ice and/or snow are possible. Freezing rain advisories cover much of the Texas Panhandle along with winter storm watches ahead of the event. As much as a quarter of an inch of ice and 3-6" of snow could accumulate in these areas by Saturday night. Here in Oklahoma we look to be mainly dealing with just a cold rain Saturday as the front returns northward amidst a strengthening low level jet keeping temperatures well above freezing. Some of the rain however could be heavy but this is just more much needed moisture for our drought stricken state.

I will throw out there that Sunday looks somewhat interesting per the NAM with a secondary lobe of energy develops along the re-surging front. Some of the forecast soundings are concerning in terms of freezing rain and perhaps snow. The most likely area for this activity would be near and southeast of I-44 Sunday. I am definitely keeping a close watch on this second wave of precipitation as colder air would be in place supporting freezing/frozen precipitation. So far significant accumulations of any sort of wintry precipitation is not expected at this time.

One thing that is certain is it WILL be turning much colder over the next few days(especially late weekend/early next week). The GFS anomalies for next week are quite cold in the plains with widespread 4 to 8 degrees below normal common. There are signs of an outbreak of Arctic air towards the second week of December. In fact the pattern during the next 2-4 weeks is one favorable for cold across much of the country and of course with all the cold air around it's only a matter of time before a more substantial threat for a winter storm develops.

A Complicated Forecast This Weekend

2011-11-30T10:36:00.001-06:00

I told you Monday that we were watching the potential for a winter storm this weekend but that there was a lot of uncertainty. Well that uncertainty continues today even. The models have a good idea on the large scale pattern it's just the details that are murky and these details are what is going to make or break this forecast. Here are some pointers.

1. There IS a storm coming this weekend. Whether it be snow, ice, or rain there's going to be widespread precipitation this weekend. Particularly Friday and Saturday and then ending Sunday. No matter how you look at it, Bedlam is going to be a COLD and WET day so make sure if you are going to the game that you are prepared.

2. Rain, Snow, or Ice? This is the challenging part of the forecast. While there is a decent amount of cold coming into play this weekend(especially later), there is A LOT of uncertainty regarding the depth and timing of this air mass. Timing is everything. If the cold air arrives faster and/or is deeper than currently anticipated(this means the temperature a few thousand feet above our heads is at or below freezing) then we could be dealing with more in the way of wintry precipitation. If the current modeling holds, then much of the precipitation will stay in liquid form with a brief changeover to snow/ice north and west before ending Sunday as the cold air deepens on the back side. Right now northern and western Oklahoma have the best chances of seeing any sort of wintry precipitation this weekend.

3. There is still plenty of room for change. The forecast can change quickly between now and Saturday and that needs to be stressed. I anticipate a more solid set of model data this evening as they will have sampled the storm much better(it is coming ashore this morning). Any changes in the track of this system and timing/depth of cold air mass will have MAJOR implications on our weather this weekend. Winter storms make for tricky forecasting and the smallest change in details can re-create the whole storm.

I don't have any graphics to show you now as I feel it would be pointless to show you several different model interpretations as they are bound to change by the next run. Like I said I'm hoping to have a more solid interpretation of the models this evening. At this time I am NOT expecting a major winter storm for our area and all three precipitation types will be possible in Oklahoma.... I am really watching the ice potential as some of the soundings I'm seeing in western and northwestern Oklahoma support freezing rain. As we all know the smallest accumulation of ice can go a long way so this is something to keep close watch on. I'll have another update this evening and hopefully with visuals.

Weekend Weather Woes Ahead

2011-11-28T18:10:00.001-06:00

Am I typing a blog right now? I think I am! I'm still alive people(you'd know this if you follow me on facebook) and until now most of my few and far between posts have been on the site's facebook page simply because it's easier to update. I've had a wild week last week being sick and then the holiday and I'm still not 100% better yet. I actually lost my voice yesterday and I have yet to regain it but I guess that doesn't stop me from being able to type a blog.

Usually during the off season(what we chasers refer the fall and winter months as) there isn't a whole lot of posting simply because there's nothing to chase and therefore nothing to write home about(November 7th was an exception). Does this mean the weather has been flat out boring the last couple weeks since I have posted? Not necessarily but that is why I encourage you all to follow me on facebook and twitter because I DO write something almost every day there. I AM though trying to start blogging more routinely because I do have a lot to say but most of the time I just don't have the TIME to translate my thoughts into a well written blog.

Ok so getting on topic here yes there will be some big weather woes coming up this weekend and ALL of us in Oklahoma know this is an important weekend in the world of college football. It's BEDLAM!. If you do have any outdoor plans(inevitably many of us do) then you need to pay close attention to the weather forecast for Saturday. There is a lot going on and and things seem to be pointing to a messy weekend here in the sooner state.

Rather than displaying 500 different model graphics(because right now all the models tell a different story), I created a rough sketch of what could go down this weekend given the large scale weather pattern shaping up. Most models do agree that there will be a dynamic closed low evolving over the southwest conus this week with a modified Arctic air mass coming southbound by the weekend. The models are all struggling with timing of the front and system and this will be a CRUCIAL factor in determining just what type of precipitation will fall this weekend. My hunch is that all three precip types Rain, Ice, and Snow will be around. The GFS is faster(and whiter) of the models with the EURO and NAM a bit slower. Again I will neglect to go into too much detail given this event is still a good 130+ hours out and much will change within the models. I will continue to provide updates throughout the week on this potential winter storm system so stay tuned.

Incredible November Tornadoes!

2011-11-09T21:55:00.001-06:00

After a lack luster year for me chase wise I was able to redeem myself Monday witnessing several amazing tornadoes and experiencing the best chase yet for me. I remember kicking myself the night before for not being able to chase Monday. I had spent days pouring myself over computer model data and gearing up for something I wouldn't be able to partake in. I went to bed that night frustrated. The next morning I decided to put on a different attitude and accept the fact I was not going to be chasing that day. That was until I got on facebook and noticed one of my buddies Kevin Connor was contemplating heading out that afternoon. I decided I would jump at the opportunity of asking if I could tag along. To my pleasant surprise I was welcome to tag along and he needed a navigator anyways so I was the perfect candidate. Suddenly I WAS chasing that day after all!

We were on the road by 1:30pm after picking up his friend Hannah Lennon in Norman with a tornado watch already out for our target area( Altus, OK). Initiation was underway across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Storms further north across western Oklahoma were mostly clustered and linear but more discrete activity was developing across far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. The first tornado warning of the day came from a supercell that entered Harmon county from the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle. Initially this was the storm we had hoped to catch up with as we raced southwest. It wasn't long before I noticed another more enticing supercell crossing the red river from Wilbarger county into Tillman county. There was a very impressive couplet on base velocity and to my surprise no tornado warning. I told Kevin that we should play this cell as I had a feeling it would be the storm of the day. I was right.

A tornado warning soon came out on the storm and there were already reports of a tornado on the ground which did not surprise me given the intense couplet on base velocity that persisted. We caught up with the storm witnessing the last few minutes of an amazing stovepipe tornado near Tipton, OK. The tornado changed shape as it began to dissipate with a wide top and narrow rope like bottom. It was almost like a smaller tornado within a larger one. Shortly after it dissipated we noticed a secondary circulation much closer to us with a newly developing tornado and coming right at us. We bolted to the car to reposition to a safer viewing point. This supercell had a large mesocyclone and rapidly rotating wall cloud. It was truly an incredible sight especially considering the time of year it was! Eventually the storm crossed into the Wichita Mountains threatening the Wildlife Refuge. A new tornado soon developed with multiple voriticies dancing on the ground in front of us. We had caught ourselves in the midst of a chaser convergence with a line of chasers(including us) following the scenic highway trying to get ahead of the storm. At one point we found ourselves between the dominator and tiv from storm chasers!(wonder if we'll get our 15 seconds of fame next season?)

View our complete album from the chase here

We entered a data hole and had to go by our own judgements and thinking the cycling supercell was going to come across the mountains behind us we decided to wait and anticipate. It wasn't long before I realized that it WASN'T coming for us but rather moving away from us. It had shifted more northerly and we scrambled to find our way back to it. Unfortunately we weren't able to catch up as it produced tornado number 6 near Fort Cobb Lake. It was getting dark and we decided to call it a chase... my best chase yet at that! I was eager to get home and upload the photos/video I had captured of the incredible storm.

The Tipton, OK tornado has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. You can read the event summary that the NWS has out by clicking here which also includes the mesonet data gathered from the Tipton and Fort Cobb tornadoes before the stations were damaged by them.

It was refreshing for me to have redeemed myself. The fact that it is November and not May puts an exclamation point on that. I'm hoping this is the beginning of many more successful chases to come. Interestingly enough not after an hour I had been home from the chase we had ANOTHER earthquake in Oklahoma. This one was a magnitude 4.7. Earthquakes and tornadoes in the same day! It can't get much better than that. Which leaves me with this.

I didn't take this but it's been floating around facebook and it can't get more real than this! Oklahoma has been a mini apocalypse lately!

You can view video of Monday's chase here.

Impressive Late Fall Setup; Historic Oklahoma Quake

2011-11-06T14:24:00.003-06:00

From earthquakes to something we are more familiar with - severe weather, It reminds me of why I love living here! In any case tomorrow is shaping up to be a fairly impressive late season severe weather event for parts of the southern plains.

A significant shortwave trough will bring increasing amounts of southwesterly shear atop a destabilizing boundary layer Monday afternoon and evening with the potential for a fairly robust severe weather event by Monday evening.

The convective models show QPF breaking out immediately ahead of the dry line expected to be situated near the far eastern Texas Panhandle or TX Panhandle/W Oklahoma border late evening and I expect(especially initially) this to be in the form of supercells with all facets of severe weather a distinct possibility. Tornadoes will be possible across parts of Western North Texas and Southwest Oklahoma where low level shear will be maximized near the dry line/warm front intersection and attendant surface low Monday evening. This area is also characterized by enlarged hodographs and warm sector instability of 1000-1500jk/g(which is fairly decent for this time of year). If I were chasing tomorrow I would definitely be targeting the Childress, TX area and then explore my road options. Altus, OK would also be a good starting point. Unfortunately though I will be sitting this event out but I will be providing the most up to date information on any severe weather occurring in the area.

As expected the Storm Prediction Center has much of Oklahoma and west Texas in their standard risk for severe weather with an enhanced risk from central Oklahoma along and south of I-40 and west of I-35 and southwest through western north Texas. It is in this area where significant severe weather is possible including tornadoes. For us in Oklahoma City I expect a transition to a convective system with heightened wind damage potential given the strengthening low level jet and unstable boundary layer.

In addition to the severe weather potential, widespread rainfall is also likely with 1-3" of rain possible across much of Oklahoma. This would help reinforce the rains of last month and help replenish soil moisture. Our average rainfall in Oklahoma City for this month is 1.98" and it's quite possible we could reach that amount and then some by Tuesday(and the affects of Monday's rains would show up in Thursday's drought monitor).

Historic Earthquake Rocks Oklahoma.
Last night we fell back to standard time and mother nature took it quite literally too! A 5.6 magnitude earthquake centered in Lincoln county near Prague sent a shock wave across much of Oklahoma and was felt as far away as Kansas City, KS and Dallas, TX! There was some structural damage in Lincoln county where the epicenter was, including parts of U.S. 62 buckling. A 4.7 magnitude foreshock occurred 21 hours previous to the main quake(slept through that one). Certainly a unsettling experience!

The last earthquake of similar magnitude occurred way back on April 9, 1952 when a M5.5 struck El Reno. The recent M5.6 earthquake last night makes it the strongest in state history![ Oklahoma Earthquake History...]

This was the second earthquake I have felt in a little over a year. No one is really sure why there has been such a marked increase in the number of noticeable quakes in Oklahoma even though there is a active fault line in the Jones, OK area. My thinking is the extreme compressing of earth's magnetic field due to all the recent solar activity could be stressing the tectonic plates and leading to an increase in seismic activity across the globe but that could be a stretch. One thing for sure is I may need to invest in earthquake insurance if this keeps up!

On The Right Track

2011-11-03T16:28:00.000-05:00

October was a wet month for Oklahoma City where over 5.95" of rain accumulated from three big systems that were spread out across the month.

Rain was widespread state wide with 3-6" of rain common across the central and southwestern 2/3rds of the state. This certainly had positive implications for the drought and even made our yards a little greener(my yard has been the greenest it's been ALL year).

While much of the state remains in extreme to exceptional drought we are seeing reductions of the D4 category where it was reduced by as much as 12% in the latest monitor issued today(above image). Much of western Oklahoma remains in an exceptional drought despite the rains, although this area has more substantial deficits.

If we wanted to end the drought this year we would have to receive 12-15" of rain by the end of December. Unfortunately this is highly unlikely. Will November follow last month's footsteps and be a wet month for us? This remains to be seen. We typically receive 2" of rain at the air port for the month of November which is not a whole lot(and certainly not enough to put an end to the drought by any means). In yesterday's post I mentioned how the pattern we are in is conducive for rain during the next 1-2 weeks where the long wave pattern features western troughing and ridging east. The modeling is showing a significant shortwave trough digging into the southern plains early next week where both heavy rain and severe weather is possible. More on this later.

A Pattern To Our Benefit.

2011-11-02T17:34:00.000-05:00

Firstly take a look at the current temperatures out there right now. A seasonably strong cold front is bringing a cold continental air mass(enhanced by snowpack across the central Rockies and plains) into the southern plains. Our temperature has gone from the mid to upper 60's this morning to the upper 40's early this evening. This is further agonized by blustery north winds gusting over 40mph at times producing wind chills in the low to mid 20's in the panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. As a strong upper level storm system shifts east across Kansas this evening and tonight parts of northern Oklahoma may be brushed by a band of snow traversing the state right now. Winter weather advisories are in effect for the western 2/3rds of Kansas where anywhere from 2-4" of snow has fallen even more snow fell in the central Rockies where Denver was buried yet again(less than a week after the last big storm!) Yep... it's that time of year again!

Because of the progressiveness of this system precipitation this far south has not been widespread. However a narrow band of rain along the frontal boundary is pushing east across eastern Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than .25" in most spots. Temperatures will fall below freezing across the northwest 2/3rds of the state tonight where freeze warnings are in effect. A freeze watch has been posted for us areas farther south and east where widespread sub freezing temperatures are likely by Friday morning. Interestingly enough Oklahoma City's typical first freeze arrives November 4th so we may be right on schedule this year! I'm really hoping for a killing freeze as the flies have been HORRIBLE in my area.

Anyways as the title of this blog says we are in a pattern that may benefit the southern plains considering that the western troughs have returned. The PNA(Pacific North America Oscillation) is negative which usually is attributed to western troughs and eastern ridges and this has been the case lately and this pattern will likely continue for at least the next 1-2 weeks. While the first couple of systems have sideswiped us the medium range models for early next week are alluding to a WET scenario for the southern plains which we will certainly NOT complain about. A southwesterly flow developing late this weekend and early next week will combine with a retreating frontal boundary(warm front) to produce a baroclynic zone(or area of enhanced lift in where a temperature gradient strengthens surface low pressure) and fairly widespread precipitation across the area. Right now there is some uncertainty as to where this front will end up but areas near the vicinity of this boundary could pick up some much needed rainfall early next week. I'm keeping an eye on it!

The longer range models continue to support the idea of a fairly progressive pattern of western troughs and eastern ridges into the middle of the month. Given there has been no substantial height rises over the northwest territories or Alaska, we have yet to see Arctic air entrained into the pattern. HOWEVER the teleconnections are showing the NAO and AO going negative mid-late month with a building reservoir of bitter cold air across western Canada. It is only a matter of time before this cold plunges south and east and it's sure to make for an interesting holiday period.

Record Breaking October Snow In Texas Panhandle!

2011-10-27T11:05:00.001-05:00

A winter storm system that caused problems Colorado yesterday is now creating problems in the Texas Panhandle with wet snow accumulating on trees and power lines and causing them to snap under the weight due to them still being foliated. Widespread power outages have been reported in Amarillo.

Snow continues to fall at this hour across much of the central and southern Texas Panhandle where temperatures have held steady around the freezing mark allowing snow to accumulate on elevated objects and grassy surfaces. Travel problems have been mostly limited due to relatively warm ground temperatures. Across Oklahoma the precipitation was falling as rain as temperatures remained well above freezing mostly in the 40's. Some spots across southwest and central Oklahoma have picked up an inch of much needed rainfall since midnight.

So far preliminary snowfall amounts from early this morning have Amarillo at 2.5" of snow which is a new record for today breaking the previous record of 2.4" in 1911. I would assume more snow has accumulated since the totals were updated so this amount is likely to change. The average amount of snowfall for Amarillo in October is just .3"! Snow and rain will continue to shift east this afternoon as the better forcing and lift shifts east with the storm system. Rain will likely continue over Oklahoma for much of the day.

Panhandles To See Decent Snow Event Tonight/Thurs

2011-10-26T21:56:00.000-05:00

A storm system that brought a winter storm to the front range Rockies in Colorado yesterday and Today will bring the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas their first taste of winter tonight/tomorrow morning with snow expected to fall as far south as I-40 in the Texas panhandle.

A Canadian air mass has been filtering into the southern plains today behind a strong cold front with high temperatures in the 50's and 60's replacing the 80's and 90's of yesterday. Cold air advection will result in below freezing mid level temperatures by 12z(7am) Thursday morning, with the darker shades of blue representing 850mb temperatures below freezing or the air temperature a few thousand feet above your head. Notice this extends all the way down past I-40 in the Texas Panhandle setting the stage for frozen precipitation tonight/tomorrow.

The surface weather map at this time shows a band of moderate QPF over the Texas Panhandle(likely a convective band) coinciding with the below freezing mid level temperatures and surface temperatures around 32 degrees during this time. The NWS in Amarillo has issued a winter weather advisory including the Amarillo area for 1-3" of snow, however if the latest NAM and GFS runs are correct which are displaying a convective band setting up in the area(this would result in higher snowfall rates) snowfall totals could be considerably greater(in the 2-4"+ range). The GFS is showing a classic snow pack signal over the central Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 30's. Quite a contrast from the warm weather earlier this week! Let alone accumulating snowfall this far south in late October! I was talking to a friend and he told me the last time the panhandle experienced significant snowfall in October was during Halloween 1991 where 10" of snow fell in Amarillo!

For us in Oklahoma, expecting mainly a cold rain in most areas with temperatures in the 50's.

Severe Weather Likely Today

2011-10-22T12:23:00.000-05:00

There is a threat for severe weather this afternoon across parts of the southern plains. The SPC has put much of central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas in their slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

There is an enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening including supercells from Oklahoma City along I-40 and south down I-35 and southeast of I-44 including Moore, Norman, Ardmore, and McAlester. This is where the greatest coverage of severe storms are expected and also the potential of supercells capable of very large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado.

A warm front was bringing the return of rich low level moisture into the state with surface dew points already in the low 60's across south central Oklahoma. The warm front will be located in the vicinity of I-40 by late afternoon with a buoyant air mass in place to the south of this boundary characterized by modest MLCAPEs and deep low level moisture for this time of year. A shortwave trough will approach the warm sector this evening coinciding with peak heating to initiate scattered thunderstorms across central Oklahoma initially and then spreading south and east during the evening. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong but bulk shear values and the presence of moderate instability will allow for organized storms and a few supercells capable of large hail and wind. The tornado threat is not high given the weak wind profiles however will need to watch discrete development near warm front which could locally enhance low level shear. Those headed to the OU game this afternoon/evening will want to bring the rain gear and stay abreast of the latest weather conditions and be prepared for severe weather in the area later this afternoon.

Earliest Freeze Since 2000?; Wild Weather Pattern To End October.

2011-10-19T21:12:00.000-05:00

Freeze warnings are out for a large part of the southern plains tonight with all but far southern and southwestern Oklahoma included. Temperatures are currently running about 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday in Oklahoma city with a current temperature of 49. If we drop another 17 degrees we will hit 32 and it would be the earliest freeze since October 9th 2000.

Will we make it that low? The observation at will rogers world airport is currently reporting light and variable winds with wind speeds generally below 5mph. Skies are also clear. This makes for perfect radiational cooling as the ridge axis encompasses the state. I give the odds of Oklahoma City reaching 32 50/50 considering winds stay calm and skies clear. If a northerly wind component develops tonight then we will likely stay above freezing because of the urban heat affect. If we do see an early freeze, this does not necessarily translate to a cold winter.

Next week another deep trough will be carved out in the eastern half of the U.S. with more chilly air spilling south into much of the southern and eastern U.S. There are indications that the next front will be stronger than the previous one and a widespread killing frost/freeze as far south as I-20 is possible. I will definitely be monitoring successive runs. While we will see our temperatures moderate in between the fronts the overall outlook calls for below average temperatures for the remainder of October. It seems that fall has made a sudden arrival. Bring it!

Another Wild Winter Ahead

2011-10-17T17:49:00.000-05:00

I have been talking about the winter outlook for the past several days and it's about time I get it released before people start wondering. As the title portrays... it's going to be another winter of extremes for much of the nation.

While the graphic portrays the northern plains, Midwest, and great lakes region as enduring the worst of the cold and snow this does not mean the rest of the country is spared from old man winter's wrath. Expect a pattern of extreme temperature fluctuations across the south and east and a wintry battle zone stretching from the southern plains into the mid Atlantic where travel may become messy with ice/snow storms and intrusions of bitter cold from the north.

What's behind the above map?
Most want to broad brush La Nina/El Nino as producing a warm south and east and a cold north and west with dry weather south and somewhat wetter conditions north(the opposite with El Nino). While this is the atypical affects in a normal La Nina or El Nino pattern one has to realize that many factors are there to once again offset the "atypical affects". And one of those being high latitude blocking or a negative NAO/AO regime.

These two graphics above show perfectly the affects a +AO/NAO or - AO/NAO has on the northern hemisphere pattern. When the AO and NAO are in their negative phases we see a lot more in the way of high pressure over the north pole which causes a very amplified pattern with bitterly cold air masses finding their way south down the front range Rockies and south and east across the eastern half of the country. The pattern usually consists of a ridge west and a trough east(which was largely the overall pattern last winter and I expect this to occur again this winter... more in just a minute).

When you have a positive AO/NAO the exact opposite occurs. Instead of high pressure over the poles there is lower pressure. This usually leads to a more relaxed jet stream and less in the way of cold air building up leading to milder temperatures.

Interestingly enough the AO has been positive since September and is about to become negative later this week(makes sense given the pattern amplifying and the intrusion of chilly air Tuesday/Wednesday). Up until this week we have seen mostly mild conditions and an almost zonal flow which is characteristic of a positive AO/NAO regime.

Why am I expecting another winter of high latitude blocking? Solar activity and volcanic activity can play a role in the temperature of the stratosphere which is what induces the blocking. Over the last couple of years we had several high latitude volcano eruptions in Alaska and Iceland which put a lot of SO2(Sulfur Dioxide) into the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This can effectively warm the stratosphere which causes height rises over the north pole and forcing a displacement of polar air southward into Canada and eventually the United states. Low solar activity can cause an increase in seismic activity and volcano eruptions. In fact we are experiencing one of the lowest sunspot count periods during a solar maximum since 1928.

The southern hemisphere is coming out of a rather extreme winter with the AAO being very negative during the winter months. They too saw a similar pattern of volcanic eruptions and corresponding blocking which created harsh cold over Australia and South America.

The folks over at MetSul have an interesting theory stating that the AAO can correlate what the AO will do in the northern hemisphere winter. If it is negative during their winter it will be negative during our winter. This isn't always true but an interesting observation. Last year the AAO was positive during much of the southern hemisphere winter and yet the northern hemisphere endured a negative AO I believe a lot of it had to do with the stratospheric warmth due to the recent volcanic activity and the fact that a similar situation occurred in the southern hemisphere this year just proves the theory of low solar activity/volcanic activity.

So the bottom line is I am using a lot of natural drivers to create this winter forecast in keeping with what has been going on over the last few years. There is a La Nina and it will impact our weather to some extent but I am not broad brushing the ENSO.

Focusing on Oklahoma I expect lots of temperature fluctuations with cold periods lasting longer than warm ones. There WILL be snow/ice and there is the potential for us to experience above average snowfall again this year. Precipitation overall I anticipate will remain below average with the long term drought continuing through the winter at the very least. With an El Nino expected to develop mid-late next year next Winter could be brutal for much of the nation. Let's get through this year first though. The theme is going to be for winters to become more harsh and global temperatures cooler over the next 20-30 years as the oceanic oscillations become cold. The PDO is already cold and the AMO is next. I tried to explain everything to the best of my abilities and I know the average joe is probably not going to know off the top of his/her head what AO or PDO means. Google is your friend ;) As always I am up for discussion and will answer any questions you may have so feel free to ask.

First Frost/Freeze Of Season Likely Mid Week

2011-10-16T17:56:00.001-05:00

A strong cold front will bring chilly temperatures well into the southern plains by Tuesday and many areas in northern/central/eastern Oklahoma may experience their first frost and/or freeze of the season Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Pattern will become largely amplified by the middle of the week with an anomalously deep low developing over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Watching a tropical low pressure system just off the Yucatan which may become entrained by the trough and bring a slug of heavy rains over much of Florida and the eastern seaboard by mid-late week. Right now there is no defined low level circulation but sea surface temperatures are warm and the atmospheric environment is favorable for development once it pulls away from the influence of land. This could be a tropical storm Monday or Tuesday.

In the wake of this system will be a push of chilly air deep into the southern and eastern U.S.

The 850mb chart off of the 12z ECMWF model shows a deepening surface low along the eastern seaboard(likely the entrainment of the aforementioned tropical system) and cold air advection spilling into the heartland. High temperatures in Oklahoma both Tuesday and Wednesday will likely struggle to make it out of the 60's and lows will be in the 30's/40's. As mentioned above some locations especially in the low elevations will experience a frost and/or freeze both nights. The metro temperature for Thursday morning is 36 which may support frost if the winds are light and sky clear.

Working on the winter forecast which will be released tomorrow!

Extreme Makeover Blog Edition!

2011-10-15T22:57:00.001-05:00

So blogger has this new thing called "dynamic view" and I decided to give it a try. There are a few things I'm not crazy about but overall I think I like it. I did the background myself(the image was taken in Kansas northeast of Wichita April 3rd of this year) but everything else was just done with the click of a button lol. So props to blogger on a refreshing new look!

I should probably give you guys a run down on some of the things I have discovered with the new dynamic view. Firstly is the navigator bar at the top. You can click the different views like "Snapshot" which displays all the blog images and when you hover the blog title comes up and you can click the image to read the blog. Or the "Classic" which reverts back to the original blogging style template(probably recommended for those who don't like change... I admit I can be one of those people).

If you type in some key words like "winter" or "severe weather" in the search bar at the top right hand corner you will notice it highlights posts pertaining to the keyword you typed in. I thought that was pretty neat. To look through older posts just simply scroll down the page.

Anyways getting down to business I was supposed to have the winter outlook out for you guys by Friday and that didn't happen. It WILL be out Monday for sure. I'm going to be working on putting it together tomorrow and it will be posted Monday morning. I'm trying!

Thanks again guys for reading and all of your support you give me. I promise you next year will be far from disappointing as far as storm chasing and photos/videos are concerned! This year was a lackluster year for me anyways. I failed in every way possible lol. Believe me those of you who may be aspiring storm chasers... it's NOT as easy as it looks. It requires A LOT of experience and you don't get it all overnight... something I have learned the past couple of years. I guess things can only improve going forward so I'm pretty determined!

No Drought Buster But Nothing To Scoff At Either

2011-10-06T19:02:00.001-05:00

A slow moving storm system will bring parts of the southern plains the most widespread significant rainfall in over 6-12 months.

The upper level charts this evening show a highly amplified omega blocking pattern across North America with a high amplitude ridge being surrounded by deep troughs. This blocking pattern will mean the system out west will take its time progressing eastward over the weekend resulting in widespread and MUCH NEEDED rainfall across a large part of the central and southern plains.

Tomorrow the trough splits into two pieces with the most significant shortwave energy passing well to our north. A secondary piece will hold back across the southwest providing the area with a southwest flow. Notice the large and high amplitude ridge dominating the eastern half of the country. The strong winds today are the result of the close proximity of high and low pressures resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the plains.

With the increase in shear and low level moisture there will undoubtedly be a few severe storms tomorrow across parts of the area though the main story will be the beneficial rain Friday-Sunday. Take a look at the latest Hydrometeorological Prediction Center QPF forecast above through the weekend. Forecast rainfall amounts of 3-5"+ are being projected for a large part of west Texas and western Oklahoma! The fact that farmers are beginning the planting of the winter wheat crop this is almost a Godsend. As you go farther east especially east of I-35 the QPF amounts drop considerably. This is attributed to the presence of high pressure to our east limiting the eastward progression of heavier convection due to the more stable atmospheric conditions. Some places in western Oklahoma may receive over 3" while us in Oklahoma City pick up 1" and areas east even less than that. Regardless I will not complain considering these areas that are being favored by this event are anywhere between 15-20"+ below normal in the rainfall department and desperately need it.

If the amounts forecast above come to fruition at least short term improvements to the drought can be expected. However even if you do pick up 5" of rain the drought will not have ended. As said above rainfall deficits are exceeding 15" on a widespread level in this area and the longer term impacts will unfortunately not be erased by one event. It's going to take several events like this to even take a bite out of the drought. One other thing I wanted to point out is notice the high QPF amounts over parts of Florida and the southeast. A tropical system will likely be responsible early-mid next week.

Back to my normal routine of blogging. I know posts have been few and far between lately.

Just For Fun

2011-09-30T20:51:00.001-05:00

check out the GFS 18z projected 500mb and 850mb charts for this time next week.

Interestingly enough this is the trend the GFS and ECMWF have been showing for several runs now. The negative PNA showing up in the teleconnections for next week supports the trough in the west. This particular run is the most amplified I have seen with this trough and it would certainly appear if the 18z GFS was to have its way that a severe weather outbreak would be in the makings for eastern portions of the northern and central plains. Notice the 850's... the directional shear is definitely ripe for rotating supercells/tornadoes. This is of course if the 18z run was to verify. Previous runs while still pretty impressive were not THIS strong.

In any case the models seem to be suggesting the potential for an active weather pattern late next week. Of course Oklahoma gets the tail end of this activity if this trend continues though chances of rain will undoubtedly be on the increase. It's pretty encouraging to see a trough west of the Mississippi river for a change.

Off Season Blues...

2011-09-22T22:48:00.001-05:00

Ok it is TOO quite on my website!! I haven't posted a blog in over a week and I was close to writing today off too but I decided that SINCE earlier on facebook I had promised a post I would give you all one. Not sure who all reads my blogs anymore but those of you who still frequently check back anonymous or not I thank you for your support.

I used to make my website a priority and it still is but I have noticed I am not nearly as active as I used to be about blogging and updating. Maybe it's because there is not much weather going on or maybe I'm lacking motivation. I think it's a combination of both. I also came to the realization that I have TOO much time on my hands and I don't know what to do with myself anymore. I'm not in college yet. I had planned to start at the Oklahoma Community College this semester but personal issues and financial problems got in the way and I had to put it off until next year. At first I wasn't too bothered, I mean after all I get to sleep in and be lazy and do whatever. However that attitude has worn off fast and now I'm just desperately looking for ways to keep occupied. Blogging used to do that but I can't seem to find anything to talk about and when I do I always go into a writers block and can't put all of my thoughts into sentences. It's annoying. I think I'm trying to deal with too much at one time and I need to just sit back and take it one step at a time.

I also decided that I'm no longer making OSN a media warehouse... That's what it has become and that was initially never my intention to become a news source as there are plenty of other weather websites out there that do the same thing and you end up getting an information overload and it's mostly the same things. In the beginning I wanted OSN to be set apart from the other weather websites and that's what I am going back to. I'm turning it into a portfolio of my adventures and my photography.... I want this to be about ME and my passion for meteorology and extreme weather. Sharing MY experiences with you all. It's the off season now so there's not much storm chasing going on but my photography is not just limited to weather. I LOVE taking pictures of nature and picturesque things.

Basically what I am trying to say through all of this is you guys are going to start seeing a lot more of ME. My blogs are not going to be technical information overload like they have been. I used to explain things with such simplicity and added my own twist to things and I miss that. I became so caught up in trying to make the website a media outlet that I totally took my personality out of things. Of course facebook will still be treated like an informal source for you guys as that's what is was intended for but my website is going to start showcasing more of my work and MY thoughts purely and not just some mainstream information that you can get anywhere. It's back to being ME.

Record Heat To Record Cold!?

2011-09-13T15:46:00.002-05:00

It's truly amazing at how quickly the weather changes on us here in Oklahoma. It has been a downright BRUTALLY hot summer and today is likely keeping us reminiscent of it after a nice stretch of cooler weather we had last week.

These are today's highs(so far) across the state. You can tell a front has come through much of northwestern Oklahoma and the panhandle where temperatures this time today are as much as 10-20 degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday. Across much of southern Oklahoma it's an oven with temperatures approaching 110 in some spots!!! This is the effect of what is called compressional heating where strong sinking motion ahead of the front warms very quickly and heats the air around. Temperatures in the metro once again reached 100 which makes this day 63 of 100+ temperatures for the year.... let's hope it stops here.

While today's front will not help much in cooling temperatures the front that is coming in late Wednesday will be VERY noticeable. A powerful Canadian surface high will bring unusually chilly air very far south with temperatures even here in the southern plains expected to be quite chilly. Highs Thursday may not get out of the 50's in areas making for a raw day when combined with gusty north winds and rain. Above is the 18z NAM's depiction of surface temperatures around 5pm Thursday. Notice the broad area of high pressure.

The 12z GFS(18z not out yet) tells pretty much the same story though a bit cooler. The very cool temperatures will be somewhat attributed to the expected cloud cover/precipitation Thursday however the potent area of high pressure and cold air advection in the 850mb levels will be responsible as well. This is a REAL cold front. If temperatures are held down as much as model guidance is suggesting we could see some record low highs Thursday which will be pretty ironic given all the heat records we have been setting. Places across the midwest and great lakes will be below freezing Thursday morning!

Given the return of westerlies late week which will be feeding energy from a robust area of low pressure over the southwest U.S. rain chances are on the increase as this area of lift combines with the front to produce scattered showers. Thursday is the opening day of the fair and while it does not look to be a complete washout getting rained on once or twice during the day is a good bet and it will be cloudy and quite cool for mid September. I'm planning on being out there Thursday so that's why it's so important to me(though I'm sure I'm not the only one with outdoor plans Thursday).

Make That 63 Days...

2011-09-12T20:20:00.000-05:00

Today was the 62nd time Oklahoma City reached or surpassed the century mark and tomorrow will make 63 before a strong cold front brings big changes to our weather for the rest of the week.

Western Oklahoma baked today as strong southwesterly winds and affects from the drought allowed temperatures to soar well past 100. The farther east you went the "cooler" it was with low to mid 90's for highs across eastern and northeastern Oklahoma. The metro played with 100. I know last week I was adamant about the 100's not returning for the remainder of the year, well that ALMOST was a correct forecast until today and tomorrow. I do firmly believe though that we are seeing the END of the record summer heat and after tomorrow THIS time we should be done. I underestimated the southwest wind component and compressional heating ahead of the front. I've been having a string of bad luck forecasts lately and hopefully this is the LAST fail(though I know its not... we ALL make mistakes).

The front will bring much cooler weather AND rain for the end of the week. The HPC is saying parts of Oklahoma will receive an inch of rain. Not a drought buster but certainly welcome short term relief.

Widespread Frost/Freeze For Midwest Late Week

2011-09-11T21:00:00.003-05:00

Check out this surface map on the 18z GFS for Thursday morning.

A pretty potent surface high(1030mb) coming south/southeast out of Canada mid-late week will likely bring the first widespread frost/freeze of the early fall season to much of the midwest and parts of the great lakes. The blue line is the freezing line showing many areas in MN and IA at or below freezing 12z Thursday morning.

You can also see Maria out to sea and I believe that she will stay out to sea given the trends.

Interestingly enough the prospects for widespread rainfall are beginning to look decent for Oklahoma around mid week as the front slows and stalls across the southern plains and subtle shortwaves ride along it providing lift for precipitation. Check out what the 174 hour 18z GFS is showing precip wise next week.

Typically a pattern like this would favor heavy rain for our area however with no large scale storm system and the climatological affects of the drought(meaning lots of dry low level air) will prevent this from being anything more than a nice dust settler. Still though in my opinion 1-2" of rain on a scale like this is nothing to really scoff at(I mean afterall I will take the rain in any way shape or form we can get it at this point!). Funny how next week is the start of the Oklahoma State Fair. It seems every year around fair time we go into some sort of stormy pattern but it will be hard for me to complain this year.

Temperatures will also be quite a bit cooler as well after the brief return to summer tomorrow and Tuesday(AGAIN temperatures will not reach levels that they have during the heat of the summer and I've already explained numerous times as to why. It WILL reach 100 in spots however... especially south and west. The metro likely doesn't make it to 100).

Nate Not Responding To Trough; MAJOR Cool Shot Next Week

2011-09-09T14:48:00.003-05:00

Apparently the ridge above Nate is a bit stronger than I thought and this is having implications on its track as well as the cyclone's small size. I overlooked this last night but will not give excuses. I was wrong... can't get them all right. Because Nate is being suppressed to the south and west it will also be forced into a region of very dry air seen here on this water vapor image.

Dry air is already becoming entrained into Nate(something I correctly assumed would affect its strengthening process) and had weakened Nate considerably since last night. Now a 50mph storm with a pressure of 999mb which has come up since last night. While the cloud pattern is clearly organized(you can see the classic "swirl"), convection associated is shallow and not deepening near the center.

With a track to the west, Nate will likely entrain more dry air and I see it difficult for it to become a hurricane before retrograding into Mexico like the NHC shows. Some additional strengthening could occur but if convection doesn't deepen by tonight I say we just stick a fork in Nate and be done with it. No this is not bringing rain to Texas... sorry.

Next week is looking interesting. This is the 500mb heights/vorticity for Monday evening showing a lot going on. First we notice Maria near the Bahamas. I believe Maria is a bit farther south than this given the current trends and organization state. I think a track more over Puerto Rico and just north of Hispaniola and probably right through the Bahamas is closer to reality. This could be yet another close call for the U.S. depending on the amplification of a trough coming out next week. I wanna say this stays out to sea too but something tells me this is not Katia(but also not Irene).

We also see the ridge has clearly re-established itself across the southern plains likely bringing a return to hot weather but not for long(again I do not see temperatures reaching the levels they did last week and before that). You see those height rises over western Canada into Alaska? This will likely amplify the trough you see nudging into the northern plains and bring a fresh bout of cooler air into the country's mid section early-mid next week.

Low and behold here we go again. Largely amplified trough of the northern tier of the U.S. with northwest flow existing across the plains. MUCH COOLER air will filter its way south again into our area and we may see temperatures even cooler than what we had Labor day weekend! Definitely see a lot of frost advisories and even some freeze watches/warnings going out for parts of the midwest/great lakes next week though it won't get quite as cold down here. You see Maria attempting to stay out to sea but I'm adamant about saying it's not a done deal. I've been proven wrong before so I'll give the GFS some credit here as after all it defeated me not once but TWICE on Katia and now Nate(not that those already deluged by Irene and Lee are complaining).

Nate To Pull A Lee But Perhaps Stronger

2011-09-08T21:34:00.002-05:00

This is going to be a relatively brief post and no fancy graphics to go along with it but I felt I owed you guys an update on Nate partially due to the fact I promised a video blog on the last post. That's not going to happen tonight simply because it is late and there's a lot of commotion going on in my house right now if you know what I mean... lol.

First of all the models are simply ALL over the place in regards to where Nate is going to go. The general idea is that Nate meanders around the bay of Campeche/southern Gulf of Mexico before eventually retrograding into Mexico. Now interestingly enough we have a trough(really the upper level low of Lee opening up and amplifying somewhat this weekend/next week) to the north of Nate setting up in the Great Lakes/Tennessee Valley region and you would think this would draw Nate northward and then northeast roughly along the same path Lee took last weekend. The GFS shows this and still retrogrades Nate into an area of very dry air which to me does not make sense. I think Nate is going to make the connection with the trough and come north into the central and eventually northern Gulf of Mexico causing big problems for roughly the same areas that dealt with Lee. This time however we may have a stronger tropical cyclone on our hands. It's just more rain in places that don't need it(I mean REALLY can we not catch a break here in the southern plains???!!).

We'll see what goes down in the coming days. The GFS offhanded a lot of us with Katia recurving out to sea(when I and some others initially thought this was a close call with the U.S. or more), so we'll see how it fares with Nate. It's already flirting with hurricane status as of the latest advisory and given the light shear/high oceanic heat content there is really no reason to doubt this thing gets stronger. The only impediment is the dry air to it's west and northwest which may or may not become entrained.

Looking Ahead To Fall 2011

2011-09-08T16:41:00.003-05:00

So I have been asked a plethora of questions over the last several days from relatives, friends, even you guys on facebook/twitter, etc. will it ever RAIN again? Will temperatures stay below 100 for the remainder of the year? What can we expect weather wise this fall? La Nina!?! Say it ain't so! Yeah you get the idea.

Unfortunately it is so that La Nina has made its comeback and the folks at NOAA have officially declared this today.

Sea surface temperatures are running once again below normal across the equatorial Pacific and these cold anomalies have been persistent over the last couple of months prompting NOAA to go ahead with a La Nina advisory(upgraded from the watch they had issued previously). While I am not rooting for it(you shouldn't be if you want rain down south) it's not surprising that this has happened and I have been saying that typically during cold PDOs we are no stranger to multi-year La Nina's. It happened in 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 when the PDO initially went cold and then we saw the big El Nino come on afterwards and now we are back to La Nina(interestingly enough I expect a warm ENSO next year.... it's all part of the pattern).

Typically impacts from La Nina/El Nino are most prominent during the Fall/Winter months so unfortunately for us given this alone the prospects for near to above average precipitation in the coming months is already low given that La Nina atypically brings milder and drier weather to the southern plains.

This is an ugly picture right here. The CFS predicting a La Nina even stronger than last years(!) and persisting into Spring of next year. I don't quite buy this just yet but I do agree that a weak to even moderate La Nina episode is in the makings and expected to last at least into the upcoming winter. Now keep in mind this is just a model and notice the ensembles are all over the place but the forecast ensemble mean(or a compromise of all the ensembles) does not look pretty.

Looking ahead to Fall

In a normal year(if normal exists anymore) we usually see precipitation spike again during the fall months(October being the start of the new water year). The wettest month is no surprise May given that spring is usually our wet season. September is our third wettest month usually accumulating at least 3.98" of rain. So far this month for the first full week of September we have seen .21" of rain. I guess not too shabby for now. However the outlook for the next 8-14 days shows little if any in the way of any meaningful rainfall and so already we can assume that September will ultimately end up below average in the precipitation department.

Above graphic shows the observed precipitation for the current water year(October 1st last year through September 30th of this year) and to no surprise you can see just why we are in such a terrible drought. We are WAY below average when it comes to precipitation! A deficit of 12.8" for the year.

Above is the CFS model for precipitation during the September through November(FALL) period. It's showing widespread below normal precipitation during the next three months mostly weighted to the oncoming La Nina. You can see the classic signal for above normal rainfall in the pacific northwest and below normal across the southern U.S. Greens showing up in the east are reminiscent of the tropical activity we've been having.

Given the pattern I am calling for below normal precipitation for the Fall. It will rain occasionally yes but widespread precipitation on a frequent occurrence does not appear likely.

Temperatures for the fall are expected to range from average to slightly above average. We are enjoying a nice reprieve from the heat of summer this week but temperatures will come up again early next week as upper level ridge attempts to rebuild. We will NOT however see the return of 100+ heat on a widespread level but rather temperatures in the 90's. I have stated before that the shortening days and the lowering sun angle will limit the amount of adiabatic heating and it will become increasingly difficult for temperatures to reach the levels they have this summer. It will probably still get hot yes but I am pretty confident that the 100+ degree heat at least on a widespread level is not coming back. Some places farther south and west may flirt with 100 a few more times but Oklahoma City in particular can most likely say goodbye to the triple digits. I don't think that's anything to complain about.

I've also alluded to an active Fall severe season and I think this will most likely be in part to all the heat that we have retained across the south. Once that temperature gradient re-emerges, we could see a few hefty rounds of storms. However with it being so dry that could be stretching it a bit. We'll see how the moisture quality comes into play this fall... at least for the southern plains.

I'll have a video update on the tropics here later this evening. For now I'll let you soak this in.

Rain Rain Come Again!

2011-09-06T15:49:00.004-05:00

While the weather has cooled down considerably the past couple of days. This doesn't mean that the drought has ended.... obviously. While the drought is no longer being exacerbated by the intense heat of Summer 2011(which was the hottest on RECORD for Texas and Oklahoma), the extremely dry soil and lack of any meaningful rainfall pattern is really something to be concerned about.

In a normal year, soil moisture should be running around 50%. Instead we are seeing soil moisture around 1%(as of September 4th... but does that really matter? This soil percentile map has hardly changed in the last couple of months) across large portions of the southern plains. Texas is enduring its driest 1 year drought period on record and Oklahoma is up there as well. Exceptional drought(the worst drought category) covers 81% of a Texas and 70% of Oklahoma. It is quite literally BONE DRY.

In the last 30 days Oklahoma City has picked up less than 2" of rain with much of southern Oklahoma receiving less than an inch! Tipton, Oklahoma has received a depressing .02" of rain in the 30 day period. In fact Tipton has only seen about 0.08" of rain since JUNE! Southwest Oklahoma has easily taken the brunt of the summer heat/drought for sure. Notice northeast Oklahoma the rains have been a little more generous with some places receiving over 6" of rainfall. The drought is also not "nearly" as bad in this area.

Considering September is our 3rd wettest month of the year. Let us hope that it at least lives up to that. So far we are running at .21" for the month in Oklahoma City.

The nice temperatures are great and all but I would really prefer the rain. La Nina is redeveloping in the Pacific and this has ominous implications on our future for the southern plains. La Nina TYPICALLY results in milder and drier conditions for Oklahoma but as I always say anything is possible(trying to be optimistic here... am I failing?... yes?... ok :( )

Tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche are you listening!?

Coolest Weather Since May Next Week

2011-09-02T13:35:00.001-05:00

I've been adamant about the upcoming cooler towards and beyond Labor day since last week. The COOLEST temperatures we have seen since early to mid MAY are on the way for much of the southern plains. The latest 12z GFS anomalies for the upcoming week speaks for itself.

Temperatures running as much as 5 degrees below normal next week across much of the plains. Even Texas is going to cool down! The cold anomalies you see across the southeast are in association with the north/northeast flow around Lee along with the clouds and precipitation. It's definitely a sure sign of Fall and a welcome one at that! I've been getting questions regarding if we will see a return of the 100 degree heat after next week and my answer to that is no(at least not for areas north of the red river). While it's likely we warm up again mid to late month, it will be far from the kind of heat we are currently experiencing. As you go deeper into the month the daylight continues to decrease along with the sun angle so with climatology on our side it will become increasingly difficult to reach or exceed 100 degrees as the month wears on.

Unfortunately I do not anticipate a whole lot of rain with this front given the unfavorable pre-frontal flow and quick progression. However instability and increasing moisture will combine with lift to produce some scattered rain/storms Saturday night and Sunday. Definitely not expecting any drought busting rains. In speaking of, the latest drought outlook released today has changed very little from last week. If there were changes, it was was to expand the D4(worst level of drought) farther east. Persistently hot temperatures and no rain this week has not helped the situation at all. Still holding out hope for the fall rainy season. September is one of the wettest months of the year for us(again speaking for climatology... mother nature doesn't always play by the rules) and lets hope it lives up to that this year.

No video blogs today. Gotta smooth out the rough spots that are recurring and hopefully I'll have a better webcam than the one built into my laptop soon(yay not only do you get to listen to me but you can SEE me too lol... the ladies will be swooning. Ok that was uncalled for. lol).

Lee To Be BIG Rain Maker For Coastal Gulf

2011-09-01T20:32:00.002-05:00

Assuming that "swirl" in the north Atlantic doesn't get named first(for heaven's sake lets hope not. There's merely a formidable thunderstorm with this thing), newly formed tropical depression 13 in the Gulf should become Lee in the next 12-24 hours.

Satellite presentation of Lee to be is pretty poor. There is no defined low level circulation evident on satellite despite the recent reports of hurricane hunters finding a closed low level circulation(which thus prompted NHC to begin issuing advisories). There is not much in the way of any banding going on but it is a relatively large axis of low pressure and should continue to get its act together over the next few days.

If you look at the NHC track above there is a fairly large cone of uncertainty which tells us that the future track of Lee to be is highly uncertain. The steering currents across the northern Gulf are weak and will allow Lee to sort of meander around the coast for awhile before finally being picked up by a deepening trough across the great lakes and associated frontal boundary next week.

Models are coming into better agreement on where this thing should end up with a generally northeast track(remember last night I mentioned this in the video).

The expected SLOW movement of Lee is going to cause big problems with flooding along the coastal Gulf especially in Louisiana. I don't think I have ever seen the HPC forecast such ridiculous rain amounts. Rain amounts in excess of 20 INCHES are being forecast for much of southeast LA including New Orleans. I sure hope NOLA has their levee system ready for this as this will definitely be a test of integrity of their structure.

In the meantime I can't help but long for that "bulls eye" to be shifted about 200 to 300 miles to the west northwest over Texas and Oklahoma. WE NEED THE RAIN! We're getting the cooler weather at least. I see that the NWS has trended lower with their forecast highs next week. I saw a high of 78 Monday for Oklahoma City!

Video Blog!

2011-09-01T12:16:00.005-05:00

Switching it up a bit! Check out today's video blog(OSN webcast as I call them) discussing La Nina's dreaded return and some tropical monkey business. Really the NHC is trying to name yet another "swirl" out in the Atlantic that is not even purely tropical so don't be surprised if we have Lee in the wrong place. *shakes head* Seriously if they keep it up we're going to easily approach the greek alphabet this year. If they end up not naming this then Lee should be in the Gulf. It's a tricky forecast given the weak steering currents with models literally all over the place. I'll let the video do the talking.

Let me know what you guys think about these webcasts. Are they something you'd like to see more of? Or would you prefer me to stick to these typed posts. We can do both. The video blogs are easy to make and I enjoy doing them so we'll mix it up a bit. A project that will continue to be refined and perfected.

Before I go, something that was not discussed in the video(well it was in last night's video if you guys have been following me on facebook and twitter you've seen it... it was... well.. a challenge lol), the big pattern change lurking for next week.

Wow that's a whole lot of blue!! The coolest air since early May will be filtering into the southern plains with highs easily in the 70's and 80's... that's right HIGHS. Say goodbye to the triple digit heat after this week cause I think it's done for the year(about damned time! lol). Ahh September.... the start of meteorological fall, college football, the state fair, and a sure sign the holidays are not far away. Love it!

Katia And Lee BOTH U.S. Impacts, BIG Cool Down Coming Beyond Labor Day!

2011-08-29T22:06:00.000-05:00

Tropical depression 12 way out in the eastern Atlantic is likely to become "Katia"(pronounced Ka-TEE-ah) and the next big trouble maker for the U.S. I warned that Irene was only the beginning and we will see several more impacts before the season is done.... this forecast is coming to fruition. Another critter I am watching is MUCH closer to home and will impact the western Gulf of Mexico and Texas(yes TEXAS is about to get some much needed RAIN!) as early as mid-late week as "Lee".

This area of disturbed weather highlighted above is likely to organize into an area of low pressure and eventually a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.

This is the ECMWF for this Wednesday showing the trough digging into the northwest and the ridge shifting east. This type of pattern usually produces a favorable path for tropical cyclones in the Gulf to move towards Texas.

By Saturday "Lee" can be seen over the western Gulf of Mexico headed for Texas. Also notice "Katia" over the central Atlantic. That trough you see coming off the east coast will NOT re-curve "Katia" out to sea as this lifts out and the ridge builds back west steering the tropical cyclone on a WNW path. You know where this is going...

Deja vu? Isn't this not the SAME pattern that steered "Irene" towards the east coast? Look we have the ridge over the southwest the trough held inland by an anomalous ridge ridge north of "Katia". This can only mean that "Katia" has one option and that is to continue on a path almost similar to "Irene's" towards the U.S. Now yes plenty of other models suggest that this re-curves out to sea but honestly they are too strong with the trough coming off the coast. The physical drivers are there to support yet another east coast landfall and this would be bad news for those trying to clean up after "Irene's" mess. The ECMWF handled "Irene" pretty well track wise compared to the other models and so I see no reason to feel this is too terribly far from the truth. However "Lee" comes before "Katia" but perhaps not as strong.

"Lee" is more of a welcome sign of relief for Texas with at least parts of the area(HPC suggesting mainly near and east of I-35") receiving much needed rain. I'm not sure to the extent of impact "Lee" will have on our weather in Oklahoma but there will definitely be a marked increase in low level moisture later this week which could lead to increasing clouds and perhaps rain chances.

One thing that is to be noted is that much of the country from the plains eastward will experience a significant front bringing much cooler air into the area near and after Labor day especially. High temperatures projected for Oklahoma City early next week are in the 80's(some of the raw model data suggests temperatures even lower)! One thing for certain is that the long stretch of triple digit heat is just about over for many areas of the southern plains and that of course is welcome news! We'll continue to hone down on the forecast during the coming days so keep checking back.

Oh and I just have to say this before I go. "Irene" was NOT over hyped! The epic flooding and 7 billion in damages speak for itself. It may not have quite been the storm it was projected to be but it still made its mark and that is what I was preaching about.

Large And Powerful Irene Inundating NC's Outer Banks, Coastal Area.

2011-08-26T21:39:00.004-05:00

A somewhat weaker but still powerful Irene is beginning to lash the North Carolina banks and coastline with very heavy rain, wind, and a formidable storm surge approaching 20 feet in parts of the outer banks. Research shows that the highest terrain along the outer banks is only 3 feet high suggesting that the area is likely under water. Let's hope that residents took notice and evacuated before the storm arrived. Reports are that the bridges and ferries in the area have closed and police will not be responding to 911 calls for the next 24 hours. This means residents who ignorantly decided to stay are in a life threatening situation right now. We've warned well ahead of time that Irene means business.

Radar from the Morehead City, NC site showing that widespread 3-6" of rain has fallen across much of the North Carolina Coastline and Outer banks. Significant flooding has likely occurred in these areas from the combined rain/storm surge. More rain is expected through the duration of tonight.

Tornadoes are also occurring in the the outer bands of Irene in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane where shear is usually maximized. A tornado watch has been issued for the aforementioned areas until 5am EDT Saturday. These tornadoes will likely occur with little to no advanced warning as they usually come and go very quickly. Remember that these are not your typical supercells but rather low topped vorticity maximas within the most intense rain bands.

Irene has been downgraded to a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100mph and a minimal central pressure of 950mb from the 8pm NHC advisory. It is very important not to become fixated with the exact intensity of Irene as it is still a very large and dangerous tropical cyclone. The biggest concern is the intense storm surge generated by the large wind field. Even if Irene makes landfall in New England as a category 1 it will have a storm surge equivalent of a category 2. There are even some indications that Irene is trying to gain some of its lost intensity with recent data from hurricane hunters indicating slight pressure falls and satellite imagery showing convection flaring near the "eye". I doubt this restrengthens very much given that the hurricane is beginning to interact with land and will be encountering significantly higher shear and cooler waters the farther north it goes. However because of Irene's large size it will take time for it to weaken.

Irene's Storm Surge A Deep Concern

2011-08-25T22:35:00.001-05:00

So we've talked a lot about Irene's impacts to the U.S. this weekend but what specifically worries me is the storm surge that could cause unprecedented impacts to places like New York City and Manhattan. Take a look at the graphics below taken by the SLOSH model which you can find a comprehensive post done by Rusty McCraine of KOCO here(scroll down until you see the post "The SLOSH Model").

The New Moon is this upcoming Monday and Irene could not be arriving at a worse time as it will be arriving during the high tide. The two graphics above modulate what would happen if a hurricane at category 2 strength hit during high tide(likely to be the case with Irene). Pretty scary scenario showing that waters would rise 6-8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City with water heights of near 20 feet near the immediate(fortunately less populated areas) of the coastline.

In New York City the storm surge threatens to flood the subway system and Manhattan with a 15-20 foot storm surge. NYC has opted to shut down the subway system Saturday through Monday which again is unprecedented.... like watching a science fiction movie come to life.

Will Irene Be A Cat 2 At Landfall?
At the very least places from New York City to Boston can expect a category 1 hurricane Sunday given the current track projection. However if Irene was to track a little farther to the east like models were previously suggesting then a category 2 hurricane at landfall would be probable. The storm surge even with Irene hitting as a category 1 would still be formidable given the hurricane's immense size. The large wind radius is likely to whip up unusually high waves.

NC Outer Banks To Experience Full Brunt Of Irene.
The outer banks of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Hatteras to Southern Shores are likely to experience a category 3 hurricane as Irene makes its closest pass to the area. A track further to the west would bring the full brunt of Irene's northeast eyewall(usually the most intense part of a hurricane) to much of the outer banks.

Massive Flooding Along The Coast
Not only will the storm surge and winds be a threat but very heavy rainfall will also cause significant flooding especially nearest the coast. See Donny's post below for the HPC graphic showing the forecast rainfall totals from Irene.

We will continue to provide a continuous stream of information on our facebook/twitter pages to keep those impacted informed on this particularly dangerous situation. I realize that this is a website dedicated to Oklahoma's weather but given that we have not had a hurricane impact the U.S. in such a long time(much less one of this nature to the east coast) I feel the need to elaborate on its life threatening impacts. This is also a learning process for me and hopefully you guys as well. Meteorology at its best!

Irene About to ramp up

2011-08-25T17:31:00.002-05:00

Good evening y'all. Irene has weakened slightly as it has been over the Bahamas but that is about to change quick, fast, and in a hurry. The newest advisory puts the center of Irene at 27 north, 77 west or roughly 575 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Irene's movement is out of the north/northwest at 14 mph. Below is a level 2 radar scan of Melbourne, Florida where you can clearly see the eyewall and outer bands of Irene as she's moving away from the Bahama's.

Hurricane Warnings have been issued as far north as the Virginia/ North Carolina Border with hurricane watches as far north as New Jersey. Evacuations have been advised for the impending hurricane. Before it makes landfall within the next 24-36 hours it will be moving into a very favorable environment for rapid intensification. You can see by the satellite image below its really starting to get going again

You can really see where the eyewall is starting to get even better defined. We are expecting this to become a high end category 3 or even as strong as a low to moderate end category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. When it hits along the Carolina Coast it will be a category 2 maybe category 3 hurricane. Rainfall will become a major hazard even for interior sections.The tornado potential is not that high because the northeastern quadrant should remain off the coast however in the northern most quadrant a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Here's the day 1-3 precipitation outlook from the hpc.Significant beach erosion is expected along with swells up to 9 feet. Rip Currents are also expected to be dangerous

This would be worst case scenario as New York City would be a direct impact from a category 1 and a small potential of a category 2 hurricane although the later or the 2 is unlikely as the center of circulation will be flirting with the coast on its trip up the northeast coast. On a lesser note check out this craziness from this morning's 12z run of the GFS model.

Well well isn't this nice!! You got a high to the east a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and a massive front coming down from Canada where the 540 line is on the North Dakota/Canada Border! Did someone order winter back cause I'll take it!!

Powerful Irene Lashing Bahamas... Serious Threat To New England.

2011-08-24T14:35:00.002-05:00

Now a powerful category three hurricane, Irene is lashing the Bahamas with the eye passing directly over the crooked island.

Irene rapidly intensified going from a questionably 80knot( I say questionably as I do not believe a hurricane with a 969mb pressure at the time and an "eye" is a category 1.) to a 105knot storm this morning. The eye is clearly visible passing directly over the crooked island with a ring of cold cloud tops within the eyewall suggestive that Irene is not stopping at 105knots. It is very likely that Irene becomes a category 4 hurricane later today or tonight as it continues to push northwest through the central Bahamas.

The 12z models have not changed much from yesterday taking Irene through the outer banks of North Carolina and then up the coast into New England. This is likely to be worst case scenario for the northeast with the GFDL and HWRF showing a rather ominous category 4 hurricane lashing New York City and Cape Cod. I believe the GFDL and HWRF may be a little overdone but a category 2 or perhaps 3 even is a real possibility.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm until you get to about New Jersey where they drop off rather significantly. Since Irene will be a large and powerful hurricane it will take time for it to react to the cooler water temperatures and so only a slow weakening trend is expected and a Category 2 to perhaps 3 hurricane at landfall is probable.

Widespread heavy rainfall along the entire eastern seaboard is likely and with soil nearly saturated in areas across the northeast, significant flooding is likely along with wind damage. This is inevitably a multi-billion dollar disaster for the northeast. I REALLY hope people are taking the time to prepare as this will be a MUCH bigger headline than yesterday's earthquake. At least you can see this one coming!

I will try to have a post later about some significant pattern changes showing up for September... namely after labor day. It appears that Summer may be on its last "hurrah" if you will. I'm definitely not complaining! Bring on fall!

Rapid Intensification Has Begun.

2011-08-23T21:26:00.001-05:00

Does this look like a category one to you? I didn't think so. I would fully expect(hope??) that the NHC strengthens Irene to a formidable category two hurricane by the next advisory. Recon data showing 90knot(103mph) surface winds and a pressure of 965mb(down from 969mb from the previous advisory however even so 969mb with an "eye" DOES NOT constitute as a category one hurricane in my books).

The ideas from my previous post remain unchanged. This is still an east coast hitter... not going out to sea. As Joe Bastardi eloquently puts it it's like picking your poison. An east track means a stronger hurricane hitting New England, a western track means NC gets slammed. Either way a high impact hurricane.

Irene should continue to deepen tonight becoming a major hurricane potentially by sunrise. The Bahamas are in for a rocky ride.

Irene NOT Headed Out To Sea... Wilmington To Hatteras NC GET READY.

2011-08-23T14:25:00.001-05:00

The talk lately(other than the recent 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Virginia) has been about Irene and the possibility of it re-curving out to sea missing the U.S. There are always the model dwellers and then there are those who look at the actual data and current trends. The fact of the matter, is that Irene IS headed for the U.S. and there's NO escaping it. I made this clear last night.

Irene is still situated beneath a broad but narrow subtropical ridge and this has been steering the hurricane west northwestward for the past few days. Yes there was a slight northward jog last night but since then a resume towards the west has been observed. You can also see the southern plains ridge to Irene's west and the low amplitude trough coming off the northeast coast. A new shortwave can be seen crossing the great lakes and THIS will be the player in Irene's NW/N movement over the next couple of days. The amplitude of this trough will play a large role in whether or not Irene continues northwestward into North Carolina or makes a turn to the north up the eastern seaboard. Either way we are talking about a nasty storm and potentially devastating impacts.

The GFS in recent runs has been the model that has people screaming "FISH STORM!" when in reality I don't see why? Even if the GFS was to verify this just simply means a STRONGER storm for the northeast and Cape Cod as it won't be hugging the coastline. Of course the most significant impacts are going to be where Irene makes initial landfall. However heavy rains and tree toppling winds are going to be widespread up the entire eastern seaboard resulting in lots of power outages and damage. As I have been saying folks in the area need to GET READY. A model is a model and it will change a hundred times before the actual impact. The overall trends for this to impact the U.S. are still very much alive.

Looking at the spaghetti plots above, the models HAVE shifted eastward with Irene but not enough to bring the full brunt of the storm completely away from the U.S. and that is what I am trying to make clear to you. In fact this scenario again as mentioned above only results in an relatively unperturbed storm and a stronger one for the northeast. It's worst case scenario no matter how you put it. Right now my estimates are for a landfall between Wilmington and Hatteras, NC then moving north up the coast affecting much of New England... depending on later runs/trends this could shift ever so slightly to the east.

As far as intensity goes with Irene... it's really not important to become fixated with "how strong it" or "how far away the center" will be, because Irene will be a LARGE tropical cyclone with tropical storm force and hurricane force winds occurring WELL AWAY from the center. Regardless my thinking is that this is a Major hurricane for the east coast likely a upper end category 3 or lower end 4. The strongest Hurricane since Floyd in 1999.

Irene has developed an eye based on satellite imagery and cloud tops are beginning to grow colder around the eyewall. This is a sign Irene may be starting to intensify and once it pulls away from Hispaniola it should undergo a period of rapid intensification either late tonight or tomorrow. The Bahamas are in for a good beating. Irene has currently been struggling with some dry air off the higher terrain of Hispaniola being aided by 10-15knots of southwesterly shear. Though recent shear analysis below shows that it has begun to decrease to near 10knots.

Other than that the environmental conditions are favorable for continued strengthening.

"Eye" Visible On Irene

2011-08-22T22:21:00.000-05:00

Now a category two storm with sustained winds of 100mph and a minimal pressure of 980mb. Satellite imagery continues to show improving cloud structure with expanding CDO and "eye" now visible.

The forecast from below remains unchanged. Irene is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow and will likely lash the Bahamas before setting its sights on the U.S. Right now landfall near Myrtle Beach seems reasonable but there remains some variability within model consensus on the exact track. A lot will depend on how the trough over the east amplifies over the next few days. A strong trough will result in a more rapid turn to the north while a weaker trough will result in a more northwestward path. Some have brought up the idea that this will re-curve out to sea and totally miss the U.S. I think this scenario is as likely as Irene ending up west of Florida(in other words highly unlikely). Will have new update tomorrow.

Irene Avoids Hispaniola, On Track To Become Major Hurricane For U.S.

2011-08-22T15:42:00.002-05:00

Irene continues to gather strength and is doing what I feared previously... passing to the north of Hispaniola.
Recent satellite imagery shows Irene beginning to really strengthen to the northeast of the Dominican Republic with convection continuing to deepen/explode directly over the center with CDO becoming evident. A largely curved band of heavy precipitation to the north of Irene continues to wrap into the hurricane which continues to expand. Now that it is clear that Irene will miss any significant interaction with Hispaniola there is virtually nothing to inhibit the strengthening process of Irene(wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are very warm not to mention Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture.) and if the eyewall is confirmed closed then we could be looking at explosive intensification.

Irene is currently being steered west northwestward around a narrow subtropical ridge and this motion will continue for at least the next 24 hours before several shortwaves across the eastern U.S. cause a weakness to develop in the ridge and turn Irene more to the northwest and eventually north northwest later in the period.

The model consensus continues to shift east with landfall becoming less and less likely over Florida and more and more likely over South Carolina. Only a couple of models bring Irene over Florida as of now. More recently models have begun to suggest Irene will not make a direct landfall but rather ride up the coast as an intense hurricane spreading very heavy rains and hurricane force winds over much of the eastern seaboard. This is a scary scenario as the ground is already saturated from recent rains and intense rainfall/wind from Irene would cause significant flooding and tree/property damage. This is looking more and more likely to be a worst case scenario for the United States and I fear what may happen if Irene does make landfall over the U.S.

History Repeats Itself?
The last hurricane to hit the U.S. east coast was Floyd back in 1999. Oddly enough some of the latest computer data shows an eerie resemblance to Floyd whose track can be seen below.

It was only yesterday when a majority of the models showed a Hugo like track which looked like this.

Looking at the spaghetti model plots above you can clearly tell the two camps... one taking it into SC and the other hugging the eastern seaboard. Both scenarios would be costly ones. If you notice the dates on Floyd and Hugo it's been awhile since we have had landfalls on the east coast. This worries me considering the overall theme of the lack of preparedness for natural disasters this year and how long it has been since we have had to deal with a land-falling hurricane of this nature on U.S. territory. I can not stress enough how important it is for residents as far south as Florida to as far north as Maine to begin prepping for a possible devastating blow from Irene. Do NOT wait until it is too late! Spread the word if you have family and friends in the path of this hurricane and take the time now to prepare yourselves. We have almost a week before the anticipated landfall which is plenty of time to prepare.

Grandfield, OK breaks state record for number of 100 degree days in a calendar year!
The record breaking summer of 2011 continues unrelenting with Grandfield, OK now breaking the state record of 100 degree days in a calendar year at 86. The previous record was held by Hollis at 85 in 1956. The forecast for Grandfield the next 7 days calls for temperatures generally in the 104-107 degree range so not only are we breaking a record... we're smashing it. Oklahoma City has tied 1980 for its record number of 100 degree days at 50. High temperatures are expected to approach or exceed 100 several times this week so we will likely break the 31 year old record.

Relief in sight?
Some of the long range computer models show the heat dome flattening significantly towards the end of this month and first week of September. This may allow cooler air from the north to filter into our area potentially bringing our first REAL taste of widespread relief in some time. We'll see.

Irene Quickly Strengthening With Hurricane Conditions Spreading Across Puerto Rico Tonight

2011-08-21T21:57:00.000-05:00

Irene is quickly strengthening as it approaches Puerto Rico with the latest data coming from Hurricane Renaissance showing that pressures have dropped to 993.4mb and flight level winds of 67knots. IR satellite imagery displays a deepening convective core and improving upper level outflow with the classic "s" shape structure.

I would argue that Irene is a hurricane with hurricane conditions expected over Puerto Rico tonight and tomorrow. Radar imagery shows the quickly organizing tropical cyclone with spiral bands becoming increasingly prominent and a tightening center of circulation. An "eye" feature is seen on radar and this is perhaps evidence that Irene is building an eyewall.

Irene's low level circulation reformed to the north last night and this has resulted in a track farther north than previously thought. This is bad news for the U.S. meaning that Irene will make less interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba resulting in more strengthening. All of the computer models call for Irene to become a major hurricane by mid-late week approaching the Georgia or South Carolina coastline Saturday.

The 12z ECMWF's interpretation of Irene making landfall Saturday.

The 18z GFS interpretation of Irene making landfall Saturday.

The good news for Florida is that the model consensus has also shifted more to the right bringing Irene farther east and away from the Florida Peninsula. However this does not leave Florida out of the woods as any deviation in track/strength could bring Irene right into the state. Regardless dangerous rip currents would be likely on the eastern Florida coastline as well tropical storm force winds from Irene's outer bands. It will be a close call.

What the models have been depicting lately would be a worst case scenario for the U.S. as the environmental conditions north of the islands and east of the U.S. coast are ripe for rapid strengthening/deepening of Irene given the very warm sea surface temperatures and ventilation and would allow Irene to potentially become a devastating hurricane for the U.S.

The last hurricane to hit the U.S. was Ike back in September of 2008.

Irene Could Be Major U.S. Problem.

2011-08-20T23:31:00.001-05:00

Harvey made landfall over Belize early this afternoon as a 60mph tropical storm. A small storm, Harvey only had a very narrow area of tropical storm force winds occurring near the tiny center and was really nothing more than a rainstorm at best and continues to weaken as it pushes further inland.

The real trouble maker currently lies just to the east of the Leeward islands. Irene sprung to life this evening going from a tropical wave to a tropical storm in just a few hours. The hurricane hunters found a small narrowly closed circulation near a deepening cluster of convection near the islands with flight level winds near 53 knots and surface winds around 45 knots(50mph).

Irene is maintaining its deep convection tonight with a mid level vortex evident on microwave imagery and this will allow Irene to strengthen further over the coming days. Models strengthen Irene into a hurricane near Puerto Rico Monday. Unlike Emily which was a much weaker system this far east, Irene is a lot better organized and a lot larger and will pose more of a threat to Hispaniola Monday or Tuesday.

Irene is in a low shear environment with plenty of warm water and this will further Irene's organization over the next few days as it moves generally west or west northwestward around the subtropical ridge.

The big question is where Irene goes once it gets into the Caribbean and whether or not it will make the connection with a trough coming into the east mid-late next week and turn north/northeast towards Florida or the Bahamas. Some of the models show a secondary trough into the southeast influencing Irene more than the first one which could allow Irene to continue west/northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The wide array of model solutions can be seen above with one camp taking the storm towards Florida with the other into the Gulf of Mexico. I believe that Irene will pose a significant threat to Florida and Cuba and that residents should definitely keep an eye on Irene as it is likely to be a large and formidable storm/hurricane. One thing to keep in mind is the less interaction Irene makes with Hispaniola/Cuba the more it is likely to strengthen. The HWRF and GFDL models show this scenario with Irene reaching major hurricane status by mid-late next week. However if Irene takes the current NHC track then it will likely spend a lot of time around land and thus inhibiting its ability to strengthen into something major. Regardless we are keeping a very close eye on Irene and will continue to provide updates throughout the week.

Will Harvey Be The Season's First Hurricane?

2011-08-19T23:21:00.000-05:00

Harvey has been determined to prove its worth becoming a rather stout tropical storm with 60mph winds as of the latest advisory by the NHC.

The center of Harvey is located just off the coast of Honduras with convection exploding and deepening and a CDO evident. Harvey is rapidly strengthening taking advantage of very warm sea surface temperatures and a lightly sheared environment despite it's proximity to land. It is very likely that Harvey will continue to strengthen up until landfall over Belize tomorrow and it is very probable that Harvey attains category one hurricane status by this time. If Harvey does become a hurricane it will be the first one of the 2011 season thus ending the streak of relatively weak tropical cyclones which have all been under 70mph.

We are also closely monitoring invest 97L located just east of the Lesser Antilles as this is the system the models have been adamantly developing into a hurricane impacting the U.S. next week. The NHC gives this system a 60% chance of becoming Irene in the next 48 hours. Another tropical wave that recently emerged off the African coastline may also develop into something down the road though it has to fight a more stable/drier environment ahead of it. We'll have a more in depth blog tomorrow about 97L and it's future impacts to the U.S. so stay tuned.

Relentless Heat/Drought Continue...

2011-08-18T22:49:00.000-05:00

The notoriously hot summer 2011 continues and with little in the way of long term relief in sight. Temperatures today again topped the century mark in many locations with Oklahoma City now just two days away from tying the record number of 100+ degree days of 50 set back in the also hot summer of 1980. I believe we are well on our way to breaking this record.... it only seems fitting to do so.

Temperatures this month have been well above average(obviously) and we are already on our way to experiencing the hottest summer on RECORD for Oklahoma. Temperatures this month so far have averaged out to 87.7 degrees(this is when you combine the highs and lows) which is .5 degrees warmer than the hottest August on record set back in 1936. Of course we still have about two weeks of the month left to go and depending on things this could go lower(or warmer). This high reading is likely attributed to the extraordinarily hot temperatures during the first week of the month. So far the overall temperature for this summer is 86.7 degrees which is well ahead of the hottest summer on record in 1934 which had an accumulated temperature of 85.2 degrees![ these stats were provided by the wonderful Oklahoma mesonet. You can view their write up here.]

The latest drought monitor was released today and despite the decent amount of rain we saw last week there was very little in the way of improvement.

Only the northeast part of the state saw a one category improvement where 3-6" of rain had fallen.

The metro averaged between 1-2 inches of rain last week but this is clearly not enough to make much of an impact on the drought... maybe locally but the long term affects remain the same. There was actually an increase(64-66%) in the exceptional(D4) category where lake and river levels in the southeast part of the state and near the red river valley have been reportedly very low with even mussel beds being exposed.

According to the Palmer Drought Index much of the state needs anywhere from 12-15+ inches of rain to bring soil moisture to normal levels. Unfortunately given the overall pattern and the expectations of La Nina returning this winter it's going to be a long shot to receive even half of this total. I've seen crazier things happen but given the way things look now I'm not very optimistic about rainfall. Hopefully we see something tropical develop this way as this is really the only way we can put a dent in the drought unless some miracle pattern develops.

In speaking of tropical. Say hello to tropical depression 8 in the western Caribbean.

There isn't a whole lot of time for TD8 to develop into anything more than a meager tropical storm as it begins to interact with Honduras/Nicaragua. Regardless the depression is supposed to bring heavy rains/flooding to this area and eventually into Belize down the road. This will not have any impacts to the U.S.

The long range models continue to be adamant about a formidable tropical cyclone hitting the U.S. in 1-2 weeks. Invest 97L is being watched very carefully along with a very impressive tropical wave that has recently emerged from the African coastline. As stated in previous blogs the tropics are about to really heat up and so is the potential for U.S. landfall. Residents along the southeast coastline and Florida need to keep close watch on things.

Tropical Waves Lurking

2011-08-17T10:28:00.001-05:00

You know it's rather ironic that people say that this seasons forecasted hurricanes were a bust? Are you people kidding me? Were not even at the peak of hurricane season!! Before I get to that there's a small threat for wind damage in the afternoon as a moist and unstable air mass coupled with leftover boundaries from this mornings convection to fire of new thunderstorms in the area. Any storm could become strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat and with a lesser threat for hail however widespread severe weather is not expected. You may have noticed the heat returned with temperatures exceeding the century mark again with friday being the hottest day of the week.. A new cold front will approach early next week with temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 90s still hot but not as hot as it has been.

Getting back to the tropical corner were watching a area of disturbed weather- invest 93 in the central Caribbean area but it should not have an impact on the United States. However were are closely monitoring 3 waves that have came off the African Coast. Over the past several runs of most of the models have had a scary scenario anywhere from Texas all the way into South Carolina.

At the same time as much as Zack and I want the rain for Texas we have to ask ourself how the heck can you get a tropical system where theres a ridge in the plains- the answer is simple. You can't unless the ridge moves either far enough east or far enough west. As of now though with all the variability's of the the models on where it's taking this wave our best guess right now east anywhere from the eastern half of Louisiana into South Carolina. Details will become more clear the closer it comes. As far as strength is concerned all of the waves are moving into an area that is quite ripe for tropical development with low amounts of shear and warm water temperatures. In any case that the tropics are heating up. Take care y'all.

Letting off some Steam

2011-08-15T12:28:00.001-05:00

As almost everyone is aware, a couple nights ago straight line winds of 60-70 mph caused death and destruction at a concert stage. The latest death toll is 5. These were deaths that SHOULD HAVE BEEN PREVENTED!!!

Image 1 is the initial severe thunderstorm watch that was issued along with the initial radar well before this event took place.

This should have been the first clue not to go threw with the show. Second clue is when severe thunderstorm warnings were issued from eastern Illinois into western Indiana. Third clue should have been the lightning display out to the west. Fourth clue should have been the ominous shelf cloud. The final clue should have been the severe t-storm warning that was issued. You know this is a perfect example of why people need an all hazards NOAA weather radio programed with S.A.M.E that's short for specific area management encoder.What really tarks me off is that governor said and I quote "it wasn't anticipated". How could have it not been anticipated? Image 2 is the day 1 outlook for wind damage potential.

This is not an ordinary "slight risk" for wind damage hence the 30 percent area for the area so that means obviously there is a higher then normal potential for wind damage. Getting back to the watch here is what the watch says "hail to 1 inch and winds to 70 mph". To go into even further with the watch lets see what the watch probabilities are. The probability of 10 or more wind events is 30 percent which is the same percentile as the probability of 1 or more wind events exceeding 65 knots. So getting back to the governor do you still think that it wasn't anticipated?? Really?? You know allot of people don't really like it when the news interrupts the show there watching when there's tornado warnings and such going on but at the same time they see this shelf cloud and wondering huh? whats that? Then they have to ask the meteorologists whats going on and then they don't want to listen when they don't get the response they wanted? How messed up is that? I am sorry if this offends someone but you deserve what you get because if you still see the dark, ominous sky looming, lightning in distance you should know to get inside because it doesn't take a meteorologist to know that a storm is coming when you see dark clouds rolling in and lightning flashing. Whats really sad is that the band that was going to play were actually inside there shelter which should have been another clue to get the heck out and leave!!!

In other news we sure hope y'all have enjoyed this lovely weather thank you northwest flow!!! Unfortunantly all good things must come to an end but at the same time it WILL NOT BE as hot as what it has been- small t-storm chances will return tonight and tomorrow some strong storms are possible with wind and hail the main threats.

Ending A Remarkable Streak

2011-08-12T10:18:00.003-05:00

High temperatures in many areas of the state yesterday afternoon didn't reach 90 degrees thanks to widespread cloud cover/precipitation.

The high in Oklahoma City yesterday afternoon was 82 degrees which was well below normal for a change! Temperatures in the metro area that morning were in the upper 60's... a temperature that hadn't been experienced since mid June! The rain cooled air brought much welcome relief even to southern Oklahoma where something else remarkable happened.... not one 100 degree temperature was recorded yesterday! This means that the long streak of 100 degree days in parts of southwest Oklahoma has ended with some places seeing 50 consecutive days of being at or above 100 degrees! Our streak 90 degree days ended yesterday too in Oklahoma City with 71 days in a row with temperatures at or above 90. Temperatures across the state yesterday were the coolest since May 27th 2011 with a statewide average temperature of 78 degrees(when you combine all the lows and highs). Pretty incredible.

Temperatures today will be warmer than they were yesterday with highs likely in the mid to upper 90's. Another cold front was approaching the area from the north and you can read Donny's blog below in regards to the potential severe weather today. Temperatures will cool down again tomorrow and into the weekend with highs generally in the 90's. Are we officially done with the triple digit heat? Not yet. There are indications that the mid level ridge will move back overhead next week with highs likely approaching or exceeding the century mark in many locations. So while I don't think we are quite done with the triple digit heat just yet I think it is safe to say that the WORST of the summer heat this year is over(in other words I don't see the 110 degree temperatures of last week returning).

Severe Storms Today with tropical troubles brewing

2011-08-12T08:41:00.001-05:00

Good morning everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are already going on in northeast Oklahoma as a decent low level jet coupled with a northward moving warm front to the south to produce lift in an uncapped air mass. Brief heavy rain and vivid lightning will be the main threats at least for now. Later this morning into early afternoon a warm front will continue to be on the move and that well set the stage for what could be an active day as far as severe weather is concerned. But fortunately for us this will not be a tornado day. Instead what's going to be happening is a cold front is going to be moving into this warm sector. The combination of strong afternoon heating coupled with steepening low and mid level lapse rates will promote a healthy unstable air mass where high amounts of instability will develop with progged ML cape values over 4000 j/kg possible. However what's going to keep this from being a tornado day is weak low level shear and the helicity aka the potential for rotating winds isn't really that high. Despite the weak low level shear and weak helicity the amount of deep layer shear will promote organized thunderstorm activity maybe even brief supercell structures. Right now the storm prediction center has a big slight risk area out mainly for wind damage but it's the area in the 30 percent range that will have the highest potential for wind damage.

Depending on how things work out I wouldn't be surprised at all if that 30 percent hatched was moved further south to I-40 and somewhere in the 30 hatched will have either an upgrade to moderate risk but for now I can agree with this. But the general idea is that a mesoscale convective system is going to be developing along the front with widespread damaging winds with significant gusts to over 75 mph possible with a well developed cold pool.

In other news as said in yesterdays blog we are going to be seeing an increase in hurricane activity as the hurricane center has 4 areas will pointed out for development.

Last nights run of the gfs model would be a godsend as it showed decent remnants of a tropical system moving threw the area and produce significant rainfall amounts over 4 inches and that would put a good dent in the drought. But also it's way to far out to get into to much details and that is why I hate about forecasting tropical systems it's a sit and wait scenario. But the point is we are nearing the peak of hurricane season 2011 and as always we will be keeping you ahead of the storm.

One last thing before I get off and have more coffee is that tonight will be the peak of the Perseid Meteor shower display. The sad news is that during the overnight hours is that since we have convection chances we may not be able to see it and that the full moon tonight and tonight is the peak of the meteor shower. However if you area able to get pictures please email them to either Zack or me and we would be more then happen to post them. Have a great day y'all.

Tropical Trouble Brewing

2011-08-10T23:54:00.001-05:00

With only 5 meager tropical cyclones so far this year one has to wonder if TPC was jumping the gun again on this year's hurricane season in the Atlantic. I advise those who are thinking about letting their guard down to think twice as we are only near the beginning of what could be a busy period in the tropics coming up here very soon.

One of the few things we take a look at in analyzing the synoptic pattern for tropical cyclones is the Madden Jullian Oscillation or MJO for short. This basically measures the amount of upper level divergence available which promotes the lifting mechanisms in forming tropical cyclones. The browns on the chart represent subsidence(or dry sinking air) and the green divergence(moist rising air).

One of the big problems we have had lately is the amount of dry air that has invaded much of the upper Atlantic due to an expansive SAL(Saharan Air Layer) in an otherwise generally favorable environment for development. Lately the NHC has highlighted four areas of interest with one being close to home near the Florida Peninsula associated with a trough in this area that could deepen and develop. Another area way out in the north central Atlantic which is actually the remnants of "Emily" and two more areas in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verdes islands one in which has been deemed invest 92L.

I've highlighted some of the things discussed above on the latest water vapor imagery for the far eastern Atlantic above. 92L and the other tropical wave highlighted in yellow are definitely candidates for "Franklin", "Gert", or "Harvey" depending on what the area of disturbed weather near Florida does and the future organization of these two waves.

Interestingly enough the 18z GFS was very loud about what could go down in the next 1-2 weeks.

A double whammy for the U.S.?(look even something in the Pacific!) It's far too early to determine the specifics and I would certainly take this run with a grain of salt however the overall idea is there that the tropics are about to awaken and that the risk for U.S. landfalls towards the middle and end of this month is increasing given the overall pattern that is evolving that I will elaborate more on tomorrow.

A friendly reminder ;) ^^

Finding Something To Talk About

2011-08-09T22:12:00.001-05:00

I know the blog has been pretty dead lately but I'm sure we're all getting sick of talking about the heat/drought by now. However we have been dealing with a bit of thunderstorm activity lately given a westerly/northwesterly flow allowing frontal boundaries to slide south into our area and combine with the hot air mass and slight increase in low level moisture to provide parts of the state with much needed rain/relief from heat. Some of the storms have been big wind makers and this is to be expected when you have high dewpoint/temperature spreads.

Lahoma, OK saw a 96mph wind gust from thunderstorms yesterday evening and these storms went on to produce widespread wind damage across parts of north central and even right here in the metro. 60-70mph winds were common.

Thunderstorms will be possible again tonight and as I glance at radar there is quite a bit of activity persisting into west central and northwestern parts of the state. Some of this activity depending on if it holds together could impact Oklahoma City later tonight. We'll gladly take the rain.

The chances for rain will remain moderate tomorrow as lingering fronts/outflow boundaries persist in the area serving as focal points for redevelopment during the heat of the day. A slight risk of severe weather is in place tomorrow for much of the state with the main hazard being downburst winds. Otherwise outside of the rain/clouds it will remain quite hot but at least not "as" hot as it has been. The computer models keep us in a west/northwest flow throughout the week and into the weekend with another cold front moving into the area bringing more in the way of showers/storms and taking an edge off of the excessively hot temperatures. It's nice to see chances of rain enter the picture again.... hopefully this is a long term trend!

Thunderstorms Thwart All Time Record High At OKC

2011-08-03T20:26:00.002-05:00

An outflow boundary/weak "cool" front made its way into the state today a lot farther south than models had suggested. What did this do for us? Well it didn't keep us from topping 100 but it did bring some locations MUCH needed rain including the metro! Take a look below.

The presence of the front along with a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer provided enough lift and instability to develop widely scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Due to the large dewpoint depressions a few of the storms produced damaging downburst winds however beneficial rainfall was the main thing about these storms. The airport(Will Rogers) picked up .81" of rain which was certainly welcome. At my house we saw a good dousing of rain along with gusty winds and even hail!(marble to quarter).

The rain didn't stop temperatures from getting well above 100(even though most of these temperatures occurred before the rain came). The airport saw a high temperature of 109 today breaking our record high of 106 back in 2008. The increase in cloud cover/precipitation prevented us from reaching much less breaking our all time record high temperature of 113 set back in August 11, 1936. I'm not complaining. However most locations south and east of I-44(or southeast of the frontal boundary) saw highs maxed out into the 110-115 degree range with numerous locations breaking record highs. Below are some notable ones.

Tulsa - Today: 112; Record: 110 in 1923.
McAlester - Today: 113; Record: 105 in 2008
Oklahoma City - Today: 109; Record: 106 in 2008

The GFS 500mb vorticity above shows a large anomalous ridge(partially responsible for the searing heat) dominating much of the central and southern plains with the storm track well to our north. Today's frontal boundary was able to slide underneath the ridge to produce today's storms. This likely indicated a weakness was present in the anticyclone. This ridge will begin to flatten and shift to the south and southwest over the course of the next several days and this will begin to take an edge off of our exceptionally hot temperatures.

About a week from today the GFS indicates a major shift in the pattern towards a trough developing to our east and the ridge shifting to the southwest. This would put much of the plains in a northwest flow aloft. If this pattern materializes then next week may feature increasing chances of "cooler" temperatures and rain. Usually a northwesterly flow is favorable for thunderstorm complexes rolling out of the southern and central high plains into our area during the late night/early morning. We'll see how things pan out between now and next week. It sure is a ray of hope in this seemingly never ending heat wave!

Thoughts On Winter 2011-2012: PRELIMINARY

2011-08-01T18:45:00.003-05:00

For the last couple of years I have been trying my hand at long range forecasting and once again I find myself looking ahead. I promised that I would release my preliminary outlook for Winter 2011-2012 today and without further delay here it is.

Much like the last two winters this year will be another cold one for much of the United States. A variety of different factors lead me to believe this and I will discuss them below.

ENSO: I'm anticipating La Nina to return this winter which is supported by the cold PDO. Cold PDOs tend to enhance the cooling of the Pacific which leads to more frequent episodes of La Nina. El Ninos while they can occur are less frequent and less intense. I am not expecting anything close to the magnitude of last year's La Nina but a weak to moderate episode would not surprise me.

NAO/AO: They will both be negative this winter much like the last two winters. I discussed in a previous blog about the AAO's influence on the AO. Another factor to take into account will be stratospheric warming due to the recent volcanic activity. This in turn cools the troposphere and can lead to the displacement of the cold dome over the north Pole. We saw this last January. A negative NAO/AO in the winter creates a polar connection in which the polar jet carves out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the country. The QBO will also play a role as well and it too is expected to be negative.

Interestingly enough some models predict the AMO to weaken again this winter similar to the last couple of winters.

So what is going on? The return of the cold PDO and a weakening AMO(eventually within the next year or two it will flip to cold) has BIG implications on the global temperatures over the next 20-30 years. Our winters will become more harsh and our summers less hot(of course with the exception of this year). La Nina's will be more frequent and longer in duration. I've stated all along that the Oceanic Oscillations play a large role in our global temperature NOT CO2. I have discussed in a previous blog the correlation between the two(or lack of).

Below are the analog years I'm using as well.

You can google these analogs to find more information but it's interesting(with the exception of the PNW and SW) how it almost aligns perfectly with my forecast. Be advised that my forecast does NOT mirror these analogs but rather uses them as part of the foundation. The above factors have all been accounted for in my forecast. It's going to be interesting to see how things pan out and/or how my thinking changes when the OFFICIAL outlook is released in October. I don't think it will deviate much. It's still wayyy too early to get a hold on the specifics(like precipitation, etc.).... The drought and how much it improves between now and winter will certainly have an implication on things along with La Nina. We'll see.

What do you guys think? I'm up for discussion.

EDIT: 8pm CDT
Since some of you are curious about the two El Nino years I have factored in there. I have plugged in the major analog year that is almost the basis of my above forecast and that is 1917. Hope this clears up the confusion. I am well aware that a couple of the years in the above package are El Nino but I am not using them based on ENSO alone.

Record Heat Wave Continues

2011-08-01T11:14:00.003-05:00

We finished out July as the HOTTEST month on RECORD for Oklahoma. The statewide average temperature was 7.5 degrees above normal at 89.1 degrees. The previous record was 88.1 degrees back in July 1954!

On a local scale Oklahoma City finished the month with an average high temperature of 102.5 degrees beating the 102.4 degrees set back in the notoriously hot summer of 1980! Oklahoma City experienced their warmest month since record making began in 1890. A total of 27 out of the 31 days last month experienced a high temperature of 100 or greater which is the most of any month in recorded history!

Above shows the number of days this year that have been at or above 100 degrees. Some places in southwest Oklahoma have seen nearly 70 days of 100+ degree heat!! For Oklahoma City we have recorded 36 100 degree days with 27 of those days recorded just last month. The record number of 100 degree days in a calendar year for Oklahoma City is 50 set back in the hot summer of 1980 and I believe we will tie or break this record before August is over.

For more great stats on just how hot/dry we are visit this link. It's incredible how hot we have been and unfortunately the heat is only getting worse this week. The NWS has put much of the state in an EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING through Thursday. Again the difference between a heat advisory and an excessive heat warning is the measure of heat index. A heat index at or above 105 necessitates a heat advisory while a heat index at or above 110 warrants an excessive heat warning. Regardless the message is clear in that this heat is dangerous and folks really shouldn't spend time outdoors during peak heating hours(10am-6pm is the hottest part of the day).

143 days(including today) until Winter...

Is The AAO Trying To Tell Us Something?

2011-08-01T00:10:00.000-05:00

The Southern Hemisphere has been enduring a brutal winter and the Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) puts things into perspective for us. Folks at METSUL have an interesting theory stating that the AAO during the Southern Hemisphere Winter(Northern Hemisphere Summer) can predict what the Arctic Oscillation(AO) will do in the the Northern Hemisphere Winter. If this is the case then we have some interesting things on the table regarding our winter. Look out for my preliminary winter outlook for 2011-2012 later today!

Hello Emily, Relief at Last??!!

2011-07-30T08:32:00.000-05:00

As we already are saying goodbye and good riddance to 'Don' we are going to be saying hello to 'Emily' soon. A fairly sizable tropical wave is located 900 miles east of the Windward Islands and development of this tropical wave is at 70 percent and I would not be surprised if it becomes a depression later today but when it does become a named storm it's name will be 'Emily'. There are normal disagreements as to be expected to how strong 'Emily' will become. Right now as it nears the states I wouldn't be surprised if she becomes strong category 2 or 3 hurricane.

Regardless of where 'Emily' goes that will be the beginning of our relief. However first thing is first we have another week of oppressive heat and humidity to deal with. Today will be the last chance of rain for us for the week and it's a small chance at that and then once high pressure rebuilds over the area it will become downright yuck. I am talking about the hottest temperatures of this summer with readings 105-110 degrees easy and the normal hot spots could easily reach 115 or higher. Fear not however as this should be the last of the excessive heat. A major pattern change is scheduled to take place during the 2nd week of August as the GFS model develops a trof over the east and high pressure moves into the 4 corners region allowing for a northwest flow to develop. This will allow for better chances for mcs's (mesoscale convective systems) to develop and move threw the region along with cold fronts. Below is the forecasted 500 MB heights for August 12th according the 6z run of the GFS model.

This would truly be a blessing. There is no reason to think this will not happen as SST's are showing a weak La Nina developing yet again. As you can see off the coast of California SST's are running around 14c.

One thing that could be said before I end this blog is that what happens within the drought region whether it be some relief in the drought or no relief at all will play a major role in what kind of winter we have. Stay cool and keep hydrated!!!

What Happened To Don?

2011-07-30T00:29:00.000-05:00

Weather fail of the day? DON. Declared the fastest dissipating storm EVER Don is gone. No precipitation on radar and Brownsville is currently reporting clear skies!

So what happened? Don was a ragged storm to begin with and once it hit the bone dry Texas landscape it dried up quickly. This goes to show you how big of an implication the LONG TERM drought has on the weather right now. It's going to take a lot to get us out of this situation and a storm of Don's size and nature was no match. Admittedly I was a bit overly optimistic of Don but I knew better than to say he was the answer to our drought problem.

Up next is Emily... more later.

Don Strengthens, Headed For Texas.

2011-07-28T22:34:00.001-05:00

10PM UPDATE: Recon data has shown a 9mb drop in pressure in the relatively small center of Don over the last couple of hours. Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters showed a 7mb increase but they also stated that the dropsonde did not hit the center. Don is over higher oceanic heat content now which likely explains his improving organization. Convection has recently deepened near the center and all the available data suggests that Don is slowly strengthening. Still fighting the effects of modest northerly wind shear(which explains the elongated look on IR satellite imagery above) and dry air over the western Gulf but because Don is a small storm it makes it less suspectable to the large scale forces around it. If this were a much larger system the shear and dry air would have done a number on it. Another thing about smaller storms is that they are prone to rapid changes in intensity. I believe Don has a shot at nearing hurricane strength before landfall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville sometime tomorrow. If Don can maintain his core overnight without any significant deviations then it has a chance to wrap up quickly upon landfall. There have been situations in the past where tropical systems coming in at Don's angle have spun up very quickly so if history is any indicator then I don't see why this can't happen again. Regardless folks in Corpus Christi it is NOT time to let your guard down as you may have a respectable tropical cyclone on your hands tomorrow. The biggest story about Don is the potential for beneficial rains across portions of south central and southern Texas(generally near and south of I-10) where a good 2-4"+ may fall. Farther north it's nothing more than scattered showers/thunderstorms like I've stated in a previous blog this is no drought buster. One tropical cyclone(especially one of this nature and size) will not be able to do anything more than take a bite out of the drought. Any little bit helps I always say. For those of us in Oklahoma depending on Don I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Next week looks brutal heat wise....

Drought Worsens.... Don No Drought Buster.

2011-07-28T17:33:00.001-05:00

You ask how the drought has gotten worse? A picture speaks a thousand words so I'll let the graphic below do the talking.

The intense heat and lack of rain over the last 7-10 days has really agitated the drought with a notable expansion of the D4(worse level of drought) category into much of central Oklahoma. Further degradation occurred over eastern Oklahoma as well with D2(severe drought) category encompassing the area. The fact is, if we continue on this path into next month(which the way it is looking we will) we are in trouble. We desperately need the rain and yesterday I jumped all over tropical storm Don as our silver lining to the drought.... well I may have been too optimistic.

While the satellite presentation of Don has improved some since this morning, Don remains a poorly organized tropical storm fighting the affects of dry air and moderate wind shear. Don has not maintained or even established for that matter a core of deep convection and has had trouble aligning its mid level and low level circulations. I will again state however that Don has made some improvement to organization since this morning as convection has attempted to develop near the center. Whether or not deepening can take place tonight will determine the long term fate of Don. Landfall is expected within the next 24-36 hours somewhere near Corpus Christi since the storm is embedded in easterly/southeasterly flow it will likely continue on a general northwest track.

Because Don is such a small storm it is highly unlikely that he will put much of dent in the drought much less completely rid us of it. The most notable rains will likely occur near and south of I-10 with likely scattered activity farther north. The environmental affects of the drought will have implications on Don as it already has with the dry air and since it is not a large storm it will easily be choked of its moisture by the time it makes the route around the ridge into west Texas. While I will not completely rule out some moisture associated with Don to influence our weather in the form of rain chances, a widespread rainfall event is looking less and less likely than previously hoped for. With La Nina staging a comeback, albeit in a much weaker state, this can only mean a continuation of the long term drought which is not want we want. Please pray for rain.

Watchout Godfather fans the "Don" Is coming!!

2011-07-27T14:11:00.003-05:00

There is alot that can be said about invest 90. After making it threw quite an unfavorable environment threw downward motion and lots of wind shear it's finally making it into an area where development of it is quite likely, so likely in fact that the national hurricane center is giving it a 100 percent chance of development.

Ironically enough not many of the models are wanting to develop it which I am very skeptical about simply because forecasted wind shear is going to be decreasing over the next 24 hours to less then 15 knots. Combine that with favorable upward motion its going to lead this to be the 4th named system of the year if it isn't already. Air Force Reserve Hunters are flying out to check to see whats going on. Regardless of how quickly it develops forecasted steering currents point it to the west/northwest. However I don't quite by that it gets as far south as Brownsville, Texas though. But as soon as it becomes a depression later today models should have a better handling on how strong he will get. My best guess is that he should become a category 1 hurricane or worse case scenario a minor category 2. My best landfall guess right now is between Corpus Christy, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana. However this will likely change as there is no exact track to really look at as models are still not wanting to develop this system. A more southerly track would spread moisture into Texas and potentially into Oklahoma . But at the same time a more northerly track would take into eastern Oklahoma and up threw Arkansas. Speaking of that I have been reading that the saffir simpson scale is going to be refined a tad but that's for another blog. On top of the "don" there is a few other tropical waves of interest. the first 2 are near Cuba and theres another one that's off the African coast. So looks like finally the hurricane season is starting to really fire up. Regardless of where this goes always remember depending on how strong the low level winds get with tropical systems isolated tornadoes could be spawned in the northeast quadrant. We'll keep you updated throughout this season .

Is Invest 90L The Answer To Prayers?

2011-07-27T00:53:00.001-05:00

Late night at the weather center(a.k.a. my room lol) but I find myself hardly tired and in a blogging mood. Of course there's nothing new to talk about regarding our weather here at home but there is something brewing in the tropics that has caught my attention.... Invest 90L.

Invest 90L originated east of the lesser Antilles last week and has been meandering in the Caribbean for the past several days. The environment in this region is less than supportive of tropical development given subsidence and high wind shear. However 90L has persevered and is beginning to organize as it eyes the Gulf of Mexico. Take a look below.

Convection has been slowly deepening near a developing COC(Center of Circulation) and the NHC has actually given this invest a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. I say the odds are higher at 60% as the conditions are expected to become more favorable for further development over the next few days. Models suggest ridging developing and this will promote a relaxation of wind shear and given the very warm waters there is no reason not to believe invest 90L is the pre-makings of "Don".

My interest has been on the track Invest 90L may take and there is quite a range.

I will again state the rule of thumb when dealing with spaghetti plots. DO NOT FOCUS ON ANY ONE TRACK but rather the GENERAL TREND. And that trend is northwest. Some of the models want to bring invest 90L into north Texas and even Oklahoma and perhaps this may be wishful thinking. One thing I should note is that since a low level circulation hasn't become fully established the models will likely drastically change once one becomes evident. The most likely scenario is that Invest 90L tracks into south Texas(south of Corpus Christi around Brownsville) bringing beneficial rains to much of south Texas. However many other factors will come into play regarding track such as amount of deepening the system undergoes. If Invest 90L can become a mature cyclone before landfall it could tap into the steering currents which would bring it on a more northerly track. Regardless it's not entirely out of the question some of this moisture finds its way into Oklahoma... a bigger blessing would be a northward track of 90L which would induce widespread rainfall over much of Texas and even into Oklahoma. I've said before that it's going to take something tropical to pull us out of this drought.

The Same Old Song...

2011-07-25T22:25:00.001-05:00

Ridiculously hot and dry weather continues to grip much of the southern plains.... nothing new right? The latest drought monitor released last Thursday shows little change to the ongoing drought conditions and that's not surprising taking a look at rainfall over the past 10 days.

Most locations have received less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall over the last week. A few lucky(or blessed) locations saw a little more and others nothing at all. Depressingly a lot of the rainfall has fallen with the scattered activity we have seen yesterday and today. The brief aberration from the heat ends tomorrow with the vast majority of the state returning to high and dry conditions. While the little bit of rain we DID see will certainly help on a local scale it will definitely leave no footprint on the long term drought we are experiencing. Oklahoma City barely broke the mid 90's for a high today and I thought that was a bit refreshing to see the thermometer BELOW 100 for a change. Unfortunately nothing gold can stay.... (that's a poem right?).

Even though we still have a full month or two of Summer left on the calendar I have been desperately looking ahead to the next best thing... WINTER. I wanted to share some insight on the current ENSO pattern and what may be lurking into the fall and winter months.

The compiled forecasts for the Nino 3.4 region(the area that we officially use to designate El Nino or La Nina sort of like how Will Rogers World Airport is the official recording station for Oklahoma City.) show a general trend towards neutral conditions through the upcoming fall and winter seasons. Only a couple models show us going towards a El Nino or the other extreme La Nina. I really think El Nino is the less likely scenario regarding the upcoming Fall and Winter especially given the cold PDO we have found ourselves in. A re-emerging of La Nina however is certainly feasible. The CFS model is the most aggressive with the La Nina idea showing the redevelopment of moderate La Nina conditions by Winter 2012. I'm not putting much weight on this idea however MY thinking calls for negative neutral or low end La Nina conditions through Fall 2011 and perhaps lasting into Winter. Current SSTs show near normal readings across the equilateral Pacific and the SOI has become negative confirming La Nina has officially ended and neutral ENSO conditions are in place.

With neither El Nino or La Nina expected to drive our weather pattern into the Fall and Winter it makes for a more challenging forecast for the forecaster. The drought will definitely have implications as well, especially if things don't improve between now and the winter months. There are lots of other things that are to be taken into consideration like the teleconnections, solar activity, etc. but I will save that for another blog. I will be putting together a preliminary Winter forecast in the coming days and will likely post an update to this blog. I will leave you with a cliff hanger in saying interesting things are afloat ;) Stay tuned!

What defines the Tornado season?

2011-07-22T19:50:00.002-05:00

After seeing the tornado report in northwest Minnesota one might ask isn't tornado season technically over? The answer is very simple yes and no. Each section of the United States has it's tornado season there is Dixie Alley and the Great Plains. Let's start with Dixie Alley. Dixie Alley runs from lower Mississippi, including the states of Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, the upper Tennessee Valley, northern and central Alabama, and northern Georgia. There tornado season runs from March into last week or so of April then it moves further west into the Plains. There season runs from May into June. After summer is over there is usually a secondary tornado season although some years never see a secondary tornado season. That does not mean tornadoes cannot occur every month as I will cite an example for each month of the year and where it occurred.

January- January 21st, 1999- Arkansas and Tennessee

February- February 5th 2008- Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky

March- March 23rd 2009- Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa

April- April 25th 2011- Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky and Missouri

May- May 3rd, 1999- Oklahoma and Kansas

June- June 1st, 2011- Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania

July- July 21st 2009- Texas and Arkansas including a waterspout over Lake Conway

August- August 18th 2005- Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota

September- September 15 2006- Nebraska and Kansas

October- October 16th overnight into the 17th 2007- Texas

November- November 27th 2005- Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana

December- December 25th 2006- Florida

So what does this tell you? It tells me that tornadoes can and will occur whenever conditions are favorable. They can be low cape high shear events, high cape high shear events, high cape low shear and even from tropical systems. One cannot also disguard the roles of how La Nina and El Nino years effect the seasons either. In closing never ever let your guard down and expect the unexpected.

NEW Website Debuts!

2011-07-21T23:23:00.001-05:00

Drum roll please. *insert drum noise here* We are proud to present you with the brand new OklahomaSkies.Net! We have been working over the last month on it and have invested quite a bit of money as well and here it is! There are still a few things that will be tweaked and also some new additions that are still being worked on but the overall layout is finished and we made the decision to release it yesterday(though most of you are just now able to view it today due to the domain transfer which can take up to 24 hours to complete).

From my viewpoint I'm proud of the new design and it also motivates me to do more with the website. I'm really excited about next storm season though. There is a lot planned. A LOT. The new website sort of lays the ground work for these new plans to be implemented so lets just say this is a huge step forward. I want to thank all of you who still read our blogs and have stuck it out with us through the down times. I should finally be able to start blogging a lot more often now that things seem to be up and running smoothly again.

Climate Reality vs REALITY

2011-07-16T15:47:00.001-05:00

So by now you've heard of Al Gore's staged comeback now re-branding the scandalous "global warming" as "Climate Reality". It's quite preposterous how the AGW people can get away with this BS(yes I call it as I see it) when you take a look at the raw data.

Do I really need to explain these images as they are pretty straightforward. CO2/temperature correlation is NOT there but the temperatures correlate quite strongly with the oceanic oscillations.... hmmm that explains A LOT. REALITY couldn't be any more clear in my eyes.

Late Night Ramblings....

2011-07-16T01:23:00.000-05:00

Not sure if there are many people reading my blogs anymore due to the chaos that has ensued with the website lately... needless to say I'll be glad when we are finished working on our new website which is set for release by the end of this month(though at this rate with my lack of motivation.... it may not be till sometime in August.... I'm trying though lol). For those of you who still read my blogs and have stuck with us through everything... THANK YOU. I realize it hasn't been exciting lately and unfortunately with the weather being so boring I really don't know what else to do or say. Storm season is obviously well past over and I'm getting ready to start college next month and if anything my life is about to get much busier. I'm really hoping this doesn't translate to less blogging because it's not like I have been doing much of that lately anyways. However it IS summer(or what chasers refer to as offseason... or is that winter? For me it's offseason because I'm not Reed Timmer who is able to chase everything.... unfortunately... ).

Now that we're on the subject... I haven't really reflected much on this past chase season... It wasn't the banner season I had so enthusiastically advertised previously. I don't know if it was bad luck or the fact that this was just not a good year for the plains but I did not do well. There were tornadoes don't get me wrong but they were in all the wrong places... La Nina's tend to do that I guess. I can say that at least I did get out more than I did last year and I met new people and saw a bit more. Even if I didn't see but one tornado I'm not going to complain too much. Afterall I'm a STORM CHASER not a TORNADO CHASER. Hopefully next storm season is better for me financially AND storm wise.... Time will tell.

Also am I the only one ready to pack my bags and head north.... WAYYY north. I don't know how much more of this hot/dry weather I can take. Models show absolutely no hope for the next 7-10 days... in fact it wouldn't surprise me if the rest of July stayed hot and dry. Models amplifying the ridge this weekend into next week which is expected to dominate much of the country by then. Triple digit heat is likely to spread much farther north. Easterly flow developing over the southern plains will bring us higher humidity making for higher heat indicies. If I had to choose I would much rather prefer a dry heat over a humid heat. The GFS is a bit bullish on the dewpoints... especially near and west of I-35. I don't see 70+ dews in the heat of the day west of I-35 given the drought/arid ground/afternoon mixing... however if this was to be true lord help me.

Something else I wanted to say before I go to bed... those who think La Nina is over ought to think again. Looking at the latest data a rebound is in the makings and this is NOT good news for us in the southern plains as it can only mean a continuation of this drought. I'm beginning to look for clues to this Winter's pattern and next month I will have my annual early views on the upcoming Winter. At this point I can't say too much as I have yet to do my research but if La Nina does indeed rebound that will be a huge key to our winter.

No Respite From Blazing Heat/Drought...

2011-07-11T18:57:00.000-05:00

Do I really need to state the obvious? It's HOT! TOO HOT if you ask me! For almost two weeks in a ROW we have topped 100 here in Oklahoma City and have accumulated a total of 22 days where we have seen 100 or greater in the metro. For well over a month we have been dealing with above average temperatures with June in the record books as one of the hottest ever and now July too? It's only been 11 days into the month and our average temperature this month has already exceeded our hottest July average back in 1934!! Of course there's still room for change but the way this Summer has been and the 8-14 day outlook offers little doubt that we will have much trouble making this month one of our top 5 hottest... perhaps THE hottest.

Again you ask why it has been this hot? The drought has played a major role in our temperatures this summer leaving little humidity and plenty of dry air. This allows our temperatures to warm very quickly. I've explained this effect in a previous blog post before. Last summer we dealt with excessive humidity(we also had A LOT more rain) but this summer it's the exact opposite. The heat we had this past weekend was a scorcher with the metro exceeding 110 degrees on Saturday making it the hottest temperature recorded in 15 years and was also a record.

The heat was intensified due to an upper level ridge that was parked overhead both Saturday and Sunday. Recently the axis has shifted to the east some however is expected to expand and intensify again later in the week. A large part of the country from the southern plains to the eastern seaboard are under either heat advisories or excessive heat warnings in response to the heat. The difference between an excessive heat warning and a heat advisory is the heat index. Usually a heat index above 110 requires an excessive heat warning while heat index values below 110 and at or above 105 require heat advisories. Here in Oklahoma it hasn't been the humidity as much as the heat itself though it has been there(especially east of I-35) in modest amounts. It's important for people to take care of themselves in this kind of heat as in limiting exposure outdoors and drinking lots of water. Mowing the lawn in the afternoon is not the smartest idea...

This image isn't too surprising considering the drought but rainfall over the past week has been next to nothing. We are in a critical situation in terms of water with mandatory water rationing already in effect for the Oklahoma City area due to low water pressure. Electrical demands are also greater during intense heat as more people are running their air conditioner for longer periods of time and this stresses the grid and can lead to black outs. We are in desperate need of rainfall and we are at that time of year where we are typically dominated by a ridge of high pressure which discourages thunderstorm development as the jet stream shifts north. At this point we are pretty much out of luck unless we get something tropical.

There is a weak low pressure system over the Texas panhandle that has been generating showers/thunderstorms but will likely ride around the ridge giving us in central sections of the state little if any in the way of precipitation chances. The hot temperatures and lack of rain will likely continue through the remainder of this week at least.

Winter has never sounded so nice right now...

RAW Video: Phoenix, AZ Dust Storm

2011-07-05T23:55:00.000-05:00

Phoenix, AZ was engulfed in a wall of dust this evening after thunderstorm outflow produced what meteorologists call a "Haboob". The term sounds funny and totally unrelated but that is what describes the wall of dust you see in this incredible video taken below.

Not sure if I would've filmed from outside but I'm sure this was one heck of an experience! Phoenix is no stranger to this type of weather phenomena but not usually to this extent. Kinda looks like something from the Middle East!

In other news it's just your typical summer time heat here in Oklahoma... exacerbated by the extremely dry conditions/drought. As I keep saying, PRAY FOR RAIN.

Arlene Kicks Off The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2011-06-29T18:23:00.001-05:00

The tropics have become active and rather quickly as well as a tropical wave that emerged off the eastern Bay of Campeche has quickly spun into a full fledged tropical cyclone. Arlene was named yesterday after hurricane Renaissance found that a tropical wave had developed a low level circulation underneath a growing cluster of convection. The most recent report has found further strengthening and Arlene is a solid tropical storm with estimated winds of 60mph and a minimal pressure of 996mb.

IR satellite imagery of Arlene is pictured above. Typically IR can give us a fairly good idea of the organization and strength of tropical cyclones. The bright reds you see indicate cold cloud tops and this represents a well organized/strengthening system. When you start to see less in the way of reds and more in the way of oranges and yellows this indicates warming cloud tops and a weakening system. It is obvious that Arlene is a stout tropical cyclone and continues to gather strength over the very warm waters within the Bay of Campeche.

The forecast track for Arlene takes the storm int the central Mexican coastline by tomorrow morning. Arlene is currently moving at a slow pace given rather weak steering currents and the slow movement of the storm is allowing Arlene to continue strengthening. It is likely that Arlene will strengthen until it makes landfall and I predict that Arlene has a decent chance of becoming a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane before landfall(65-75mph). Arlene will bring widespread rains to much of Mexico and south Texas possibly exceeding 8" in spots. Much of the rain in south Texas will be beneficial given the drought.

Pictured above is what we call a spaghetti plot. This compiles forecasts from a variety of computer models and combines it into an overall forecast. It's very important NOT to pay attention to any one particular track but rather the overall track guidance. It's pretty clear that the vast majority of the models take Arlene SW into Mexico with only one model taking it north(this is obviously an outlier). This sums up pretty well with the NHC track forecast. Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of Arlene's remnants impacting our weather around the 4th of July holiday but this unfortunately no longer looks to be the case. We REALLY need the rain.

Doing The Rain Dance!

2011-06-28T14:52:00.000-05:00

The extreme heat this month has truly been remarkable with Oklahoma City likely experiencing the hottest June on RECORD before the month is over. We are already tied for the second hottest June on record and the next two days likely to feature triple digit heat will put us over the edge. At the very least we WILL tie for the hottest June on record in Oklahoma City. So what are the numbers so far? The average high temperature this month at Will Rogers World Airport has been 97 degrees... this is an incredible 9.7 degrees above the average monthly high temperature of 87.3 degrees! It's one thing to be almost 10 degrees above normal in the winter time but during the summer it's a whole new meaning. We have recorded at least 8 100 degree days for the month of June with the hottest temperature by far this month being 104 on the 18th.

So why has it been so darned hot!? The drought and very dry ground has really exacerbated the hot weather conditions we have been experiencing. The very dry ground and deep afternoon mixing has led to very windy conditions and afternoon temperatures soaring to well above average numbers. Dry air allows for the temperature to warm very quickly and this has been especially true west of I-35 where exceptional drought conditions are being experienced. West central Oklahoma has experienced its driest October 2010-June 2011 period on record with much of the state experiencing the second or third driest.

The latest drought monitor released last Thursday has shown no improvement to the ongoing drought. In fact the drought has worsened west of I-35 with exceptional(the worst level of drought) over much the area and moderate drought conditions have redeveloped over central Oklahoma. The new outlook comes out this Thursday(June 30th) and I anticipate further worsening of the drought as there has been very little in the way of rain(other than what we had this morning) since then.

In speaking of rain, there was some rain early this morning believe it or not. Check out the rainfall map showing rainfall(in inches) since midnight.

The northern half of the state received anywhere between a quarter and one inch of rain from a morning complex of thunderstorms that came from the panhandles and southern high plains last night. The airport picked up just shy of a half inch of rain with Norman nearly receiving three quarters of an inch of rain. Parts of Oklahoma county came close to an inch of rain. The rain was very welcome but likely not enough to put a dent in the drought. The biggest affect has been on the temperatures where afternoon highs will stay well below the century mark for a change today. Many areas are enjoying temperatures in the 80's currently as I type this. There is a chance for more rain/thunderstorms tonight as a frontal boundary returns northward as a warm front. Hopefully this is the case. Tomorrow depending on the convective evolution tonight will see temperatures returning back to the 100's with extreme heat likely to continue well into next week. The 4th of July as I see it now looks HOT and dry.

In other news we are closely monitoring invest 95L in the Bay Of Campeche which has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first depression. The importance it has to me is the fact that there is a possibility of some of this moisture impacting our region in about a week which could bring beneficial rainfall to much of the southern plains. If the ECMWF is to be believed we could be looking at a significant blow to the drought in the near future. Keep your fingers crossed!

Severe Weather Outbreak Today!

2011-06-20T13:31:00.000-05:00

A powerful late spring storm system will eject out of the central Rockies into the plains states today with closed vertically stacked low aiding a 60knot+ jet streak over the southern/central plains this afternoon/evening.

Strong instability will develop ahead of a cold front/dryline this afternoon yielding an extremely unstable air mass across the warm sector characterized by hot surface temperatures in the 90's/100's and dew points in the 60's. Unlike the past several days which have featured only isolated activity during the heat of the day, today's severe weather will be on a much larger scale with mid level cooling associated with the upper level system expected to lead to a much weaker capping inversion and supercells are expected to erupt along the cold front/dryline by late afternoon from Nebraska to perhaps as far south as north Texas. Any storms that develop today will take advantage of the extreme mid level and low level lapse rates to produce huge hail and damaging winds which may exceed 75mph. The storms will travel to the east and northeast impacting the I-35 corridor during the evening hours with significant severe weather likely.

For these reasons the Storm Prediction Center(SPC) has put much of the central and southern plains from south of Sioux Falls, SD to Oklahoma City, OK in their MODERATE risk for severe weather. Farther south into western north Texas storm coverage will be more isolated but potentially equally severe.

The potential for tornadoes is highest near a warm front in parts of Nebraska and Iowa today. The tornado potential decreases appreciably the farther south you go though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out even here in Oklahoma given a 50-60knot low level jet forecast to develop by evening. However relatively high cloud bases due to temperature/dewpoint spreads will mitigate the tornado potential farther south thus the reason only low tornado probabilities(2-5%) have been included for Oklahoma. OSN will not be chasing this event but we will be keeping you up to date with the very latest on our facebook page so be sure to "like" us!

Benifical Rainfall and Severe Storms return!!!

2011-06-17T13:26:00.001-05:00

We are in for quite a stormy time frame starting today and will be lasting into next week. Morning soundings shows a moderate unstable airmass with 1,871 j.kg cape and precipital water values at 1.34. During the past few hours instability has really ramped up I'll get to that in a minute. A dry line is currently located along highway 81 and is continuing to punch its way eastward. Ahead of the dry line dew points are well into the 60s with a few 70s noted and behind the dry line dew points are in the low 30s to 40s and that's were temperatures are in the 100's with 107 degree temperature in Altus!! That's were the instability comes into play. The mesoanalysis is showing ML capes over 1500 j.kg with d cape (IE downdraft cape) up to 2200 j.kg which is quite high . Mid level lapse rates are also quite high at over 9!! Confidence in thunderstorms blowing up is not the best but that's not to say one will not blow up. If they are able to pop they quickly will become severe with very large hail and damaging winds likely. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for severe weather for the region today.

Tomorrow we will do it all over again except this time thunderstorm coverage should be higher then today. Of course theres the normal disagreements on how much instability there will be nam has 4800 cape while the gfs has well over 6000 j.kg. It will be strongly unstable to say the least due to high mid level lapse rates and that will make it east for extremely large hail to form easily baseball sized or larger with damaging winds of 60-80 mph also likely.

The storm prediction center is considering a moderate risk but to the north of Oklahoma although I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk issued for central and northern Oklahoma. The active weather pattern will continue as this stubborn ridge moves to the east and allows for troughing to take place. Couple that with strong pacific energy getting caught up in the flow will allow for continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms just about every day next week so there will be pockets of heavy rain likely.

Bottom line is we are in store for quite an active period and we enjoy it with all the wretched heat and humidity that has been plaguing us for awhile. Stay tuned as the active weather returns!!

Remarkable Wind Gusts...

2011-06-16T23:39:00.000-05:00

The wind really has been the big weather story the past several days. We had the microburst in Norman Tuesday and today thunderstorm related or not it has been downright windy. A wind advisory is in place for the western 2/3rds of Oklahoma until 5am Friday morning.

The 80mph wind gust you see in Medicine Lodge was actually produced by strong downburst winds in a decaying thunderstorm earlier this evening.... as well as the 71mph gust in Grandfield. The 66mph gust in Chandler and the 65mph gust in Medford was also thunderstorm related. Elsewhere a pronounced low level jet has been responsible for the strong winds gusting well over 40mph out west. The windy weather will continue for the next several days as pressure gradient is tightened due to an approaching system out west and downstream ridge over the southeast. We may actually return to a more "spring-like" weather pattern next week with more potent severe weather Monday/Tuesday and somewhat cooler temperatures(by cooler I mean closer to average for this time of year). More later.

Damaging Microburst In Norman Last Night!

2011-06-15T13:38:00.003-05:00

A cold front combined with a very hot and moderately unstable air mass to produce a broken line of intense thunderstorms in central and southwest Oklahoma yesterday evening. Some of the storms produced damaging microbursts with the most notable one occurring in Norman.[see photos "South OKC/Norman Microburst-Life Cycle"...]

A high based supercell developed to the south and west of the metro between 6:30 and 7:00pm CDT and moved through Norman shortly before 7:30pm CDT. Below shows the base reflectivity of a high based HP supercell approaching Norman around 7:22PM CDT.

At the same time BV(Base Velocity) was showing high velocity winds moving through much of south OKC, Moore, and Norman(check out the link above for radar documentary of the microburst). These winds were between 65-85mph and were likely producing significant wind damage in Norman at the time of this image.

This image above was taken by Justin Lincks looking towards north Norman showing a classic microburst in action. Notice on the right side of the image the "rain foot" is visible. This is very evident of damaging straight line winds and is the leading edge of thunderstorm downburst winds spreading out at the surface.

This meteogram taken from the Norman mesonet station clocked a 70mph wind gust at around 7:30pm CDT. There was also a 22 degree temperature drop and rapid rise in pressure! An 82mph wind gust was also recorded in east Norman before equipment was damaged by very large hail that impacted the area as well. There was also 67mph wind gust was recorded at a mesonet station in Chickasha from a different storm and an 89mph wind gust in Elgin down in Comanche county. You can view yesterday's wind gusts here.

Based on the reports from Norman 70-80mph wind gusts were common and there was widespread tree and power line damage in the area including the roof being completely blown off of an Arvest bank in the area. Damage to roofs and vehicles were also common across much of north Oklahoma City and Norman where hail as large as tennis balls fell.[see yesterday's storm reports...]

Incredible Pictures From West Texas Sandstorm!

2011-06-12T23:14:00.001-05:00

A sandstorm impacted parts of west Texas this afternoon/evening producing very poor visibilities and making for unpleasant conditions for residents impacted. Check out these pictures below taken by storm chaser and photographer David Drummond.

The wall of sand you see on the second picture is referred to as a "haboob". Strong winds(in this case likely produced from thunderstorm outflow) lifted loose soil and red dirt hundreds of feet in the air and transported and dispersed it over surrounding areas. This sandstorm continues to impact areas in and around Lubbock, TX( I believe these pictures were taken around the Lubbock area but I'm not completely sure as he does not specify a specific location besides west Texas). Note the stormy look to the sky however there was no rain reported in this location unfortunately.

Exceptional drought continues to plague Texas with driest start to a year on record at both Amarillo and Lubbock, TX.

2011 has been a very dry year for much of west Texas with much of the state either in extreme or exceptional drought conditions. Agriculture has been hit very hard with much of this year's wheat crop in very poor condition. The land is parched by record wild fires and temperatures have continuously exceeded 100 degrees in many areas of western and northern Texas. Amarillo from the period of January 1 - June 8, 2011 has received a meager .68" of rain. The average for this period of 6.91"! In the last 115 days only .19" of rain has fallen. For Lubbock 1.10" of rain has fallen from the January-May period which also makes it the driest start to a year on record. November 2010-May 2011 makes the total 1.17" a .7" difference. This was also the driest end of a year on record for Lubbock. To put things in perspective the current drought has proven worse than the dust bowl during the 1930's!

Will it ever rain?

There are indications that a more favorable pattern for rainfall and perhaps somewhat cooler temperatures will return to the west Texas and southern plains region by mid-late summer. La Nina has been largely responsible for the lack of precipitation during the winter and spring months. La Nina is the cooling of the equilateral pacific and generally promotes a dry/warm weather pattern over the southern tier of the U.S. with the jet stream farther north and a weakened subtropical jet. The current La Nina has been declared dissipated by NOAA with return to "neutral" conditions across the Pacific. Even so it can take months for the atmosphere to respond to the change in temperatures with any substantial improvement to the drought not likely until at least late summer. There IS light at the end of the tunnel at least!

Image Of The Day

2011-06-11T17:55:00.003-05:00

Check out this radar snapshot above taken shortly after 5:30pm CDT. I've pointed out the numerous outflow boundaries being exhibited by nearby thunderstorms. Given the buoyant atmosphere it is probable that additional thunderstorm activity could develop near these boundaries in central Oklahoma. The parameters are favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. One severe storm can be seen in Canadian and Kingfisher counties(severe thunderstorm polygon represented in orange).

What causes outflow boundaries to develop? These boundaries are most prominent in the summer time where as afternoon/evening thunderstorms develop with the heat of the day. These storms are typically high based in nature due to the large dewpoint spread that occurs. The updraft will continue to "pulse" until its inflow is cut off by the rain cooled air it creates. When there is no more rising motion the updraft then collapses with rain cooled air rushing down to the surface(the downdraft) and spreading out. This can result in high winds that can exceed severe levels. When this occurs it is referred to as a microburst and these can produce wind damage. The boundary between the hot air and rain cooled air are represented in the radar image above called an outflow boundary and the differential heating can create additional lift and promote the development of new thunderstorms as explained above. Just a little weather 411 ;)

Picking Up The Pieces And Starting Anew.

2011-06-10T14:11:00.001-05:00

A corney analogy here but imagine a tornado has just destroyed our website. We have to pick up the pieces and move on. Just like in real life only there's no insurance or any of that stuff involved. Last night(6/9/11) I tried logging into my blogger account like I normally do to post blogs and I was unable to access it. I kept getting an error message and eventually a message stating that the "zack@oklahomaskies.net" account does not exist. Rats! I was pretty pissed off about it to say the very least. We spent hours trying to figure out what the problem was only to come to realize that our website was gone. I was at least able to secure the domain name and attach it to a new blogger account I set up and I'm just hoping that this doesn't happen again.

So in case you haven't gotten the memo yet, our old website is gone and we have no other choice but to start over. It's frustrating to all of us especially given that nearly two years worth of blog posts are gone. You can still view our old blog at http://www.oklahomaskiesdotnet.blogspot.com but because we are unable to access our account we are no longer able to update/maintain the old blog so I guess you could use it as an archive source now. I would import all of the blogs to this one but again I can't get the export file unless I'm logged into that account and that's useless.

We will be working extra hard over the next few days/weeks bringing back everything but I will say a lot has changed since we are only left with a blog now. I apologize to all of you and we will continue to update you on our progress over the next several days. At least we are in a fairly tranquil weather pattern(other than the thunderstorm chances we have today/tomorrow) or else this would be a lot more stressful than it already is. There is a risk of some high based severe storms this afternoon but damaging winds/hail will be the primary concerns. If the weather does get frisky this afternoon/evening we'll make sure to update on our facebook page which you can "like" here.

Again thank you for your support!

INCREDIBLE Time lapse Of Oklahoma Supercell!

2011-06-03T22:42:00.000-05:00

Just thought I'd share an AMAZING time lapse of one of the most textbook supercells I have ever seen occurring just southeast of the Oklahoma City metro area during the evening hours of May 21, 2011. This same supercell spawned a very photogenic "cone shaped" tornado near Ada, OK. Unfortunately during this time I was graduating high school and was not able to make it out to this storm. These past two years have been very frustrating for me in terms of missing/not making it to storms and I am already preparing myself for next year's storm season as this year is pretty much done in the plains. While there certainly was not a lack of tornadoes this year, they have occurred almost anywhere but the chase-able terrain of the plains. Instead much of the southern and central plains has been dealing with a "modern dust bowl" with severe drought conditions. In fact Amarillo, TX has experienced its driest start to the year on record with only 0.01" of rain falling so far this year and that came with yesterday's line of high based showers/storms!!

Meanwhile we are closely monitoring Invest 94L in the central Caribbean right now. It is currently rather broad and disorganized but the environmental conditions are as the NHC depicts "generally favorable for development" and they have dubbed the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. For those who don't know hurricanes are my second interest and you'll likely be hearing a lot from me about this year's hurricane season in the coming weeks/months.

Binger, Guthrie Tornado Oklahoma's First EF-5 Since 1999

2011-06-01T19:45:00.000-05:00

Earlier today the National Weather Service(NWS) in Norman upgraded the Binger, El Reno, Piedmont, Guthrie tornado to an EF-5 with wind speeds greater than 210mph. See the statement below.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

[Read the complete public information statement here...]

This tornado was responsible for 9 of the 10 deaths that occurred in Oklahoma last week. A wind speed of 210mph was recorded by the University of Oklahoma mobile doppler radar and this tornado was likely the strongest since May 3rd 1999 when a 318mph wind gust was measured by DOW(Doppler On Wheels). This is also Oklahoma's first EF-5 since May 3rd 1999 as well.

Map showing the 59 F5/EF tornadoes that have occurred
in the U.S. from 1950-2010. This is not including the 5
tornadoes that have occurred in 2011...

The Binger, Guthrie tornado is the latest EF-5 to wreak havoc in this year's deadly tornado season making for a total of 5 tornadoes this year that have been given the highest rating on the enhanced fujita scale.

Is this an unprecedented record? No. While 2011 has seen the most EF-5 tornadoes since 1974 when there was 6 F-5 tornadoes documented it is not the only time there has been this many tornadoes of this strength recorded.[ see list of F-5/EF-5 tornadoes since 1950...]

What is unprecedented, is the amount of deaths that have occurred this year. The SPC has counted over 518 deaths due to tornadoes this year making it the deadliest tornado year since 1953(the last time tornado deaths approached and exceeded 500). Another interesting fact is that this year's tornado deaths alone are equivalent to the total of tornado deaths in the last 5 decades!

Why have so many people died this year? The answer is not simple, in fact we are still unsure as to why there has been so many deaths this year. I believe that the answer lies in the fact that we have had several large and violent tornadoes impact highly populated areas along with the fact that people are NOT as prepared as we think they should be. In a survey that accumulated votes after asking people how much time they needed to prepare for an impending tornado 91% averaged 10 minutes and under. The average warning lead time during the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak was 31 minutes and in Joplin, MO it was 27 minutes. If it takes people less than 10 minutes to seek shelter than this is obviously MORE than enough time for people to have moved to their safe spot. This tells me that people are simply ignoring warnings or have the attitude that "it won't happen to me." and this to me is alarming. While it is unfortunate that so many people have lost their possessions and/or lives, this year has definitely uncovered the truth about people's preparedness(or lack thereof) and how IMPORTANT it is to BE prepared. It is true that the chances of anyone's house being hit by a tornado is very slim but you need to be prepared for the time disaster is imminent. Like earthquakes, tornadoes are low probability events but have very high impacts and the importance of being prepared for such events cannot be stressed enough. What do you guys think? Do you think that people are overexposed to tornado warnings/sirens and therefore do not take them seriously anymore? Are people really this unprepared? Are the amount of deaths this year related to the high impact of the tornadoes themselves in junction to highly populated areas? So many questions but a limited amount of answers. One thing I can say is that "Global Warming" is NOT the cause of this year's record breaking tornado year.

Rare tornado kills 4 in Massachusetts.

RAW video of a massive transparent tornado crossing the Connecticut River near Springfield, MA this evening. The tornado caused EF-2 to EF-3 damage to parts of town and sadly killed 4 people and injuring many more. A tornado of this magnitude occurring in Massachusetts is rare but has happened before in the past. The tornado has tied 2011 with 1973 as the deadliest tornado year for Massachusetts since the powerful EF-4 Worcester, MA tornado that killed 90 people. There were actually two tornadoes this evening that hit Springfield between 4:30 and 6:20PM EDT responsible for the deaths/damage with the one in the video above likely doing the most damage.

6/3/11 12:12PM CDT EDIT: Replaced broken link for the public information statement above. Should be working now.

Tropical Troubles Coming along with Dangerous Heat!!

2011-05-29T16:30:00.000-05:00

Can someone please turn the darn air conditioner on PLEASE!!?? Current temperatures across the region are in the upper 80s to even as high as 105 in Beaver, Oklahoma. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s are combing with this heat to create heat index values in the low to mid 90s to even as high as 104 in Buffalo and 103 in Hollis. Windy conditions are also across the area as sustained winds of 15-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. However there maybe some relief coming but it will be brief at best. A quick moving upper low will move across the area Monday night into Tuesday and there maybe just enough lift to cause a couple strong thunderstorms to develop. There will be enough instability and just enough shear to sustain thunderstorms which maybe super cellular in nature with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A slight risk of severe weather has been issued for this reason. However a threat for widespread damaging winds and a tornado or two will exist in the moderate risk area as a derecho is probable and wind fields while very strong are unidirectional and looking at skew-t soundings Souix City would be the best chance of seeing a tornado as there is decent low level directional shear however OSN doesn't plan to chase tomorrow.

After this small chance of thunderstorms Tuesday the same ole same ole will be the rule with a typical summertime pattern residing across the area as a ridge stays put. Towards the later half of the area temperatures are just going to get flat out brutal as max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will be comen and combined with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s heat index values will reach the century mark if not go over and heat advisories very well maybe required. However while the weather maybe quiet across this neck of woods things cannot be said in the tropics- that's right the tropics. June 1st is the official start of hurricane season. NOAA is predicting anywhere from 12-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. However my prediction- while similar I am going with 15-20 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes. Once thing can be said about this season- it will be active. I have noticed over the past couple days models- particularly the NGP, CMC and to a lesser degree the GFS (which the 0z run last night showed a decent tropical storm between the Louisiana and Mississippi borders). While something is stirring the pot that shear is tad to high right now but is forecasted to weaken over the next 10-15 days. One thing thats already concerning me is the MJO (aka Madden Julian Oscillation). Below is the forecasted upward motion during the next few weeks.

Notice that darker green area on days 10-15 thats when we are watching for potential development.

Well well wonders never seize there's the CMC model at hour 126 aka 7-8 days down the line. If this was to pan out this system would be named "Arlene". This is still a ways out and allot can change likely will. But on the upward motion chart also notice that brown thats dry air and not really favorable for tropical development. In closing- prepare for the heat- avoid doing stressful things during the peak heating hours- do what you gotta take care of early in the morning, drink plenty of water, avoid alcoholic drinks like beer as is dehydrates you.

Remarkable Week Of Killer Tornadoes...

2011-05-27T13:13:00.000-05:00

2011 will surely go down as one of the most active/deadliest tornado years in history and we still have climatologically speaking another month to go before we see a dramatic decrease in the number of expected tornado reports. Whether or not mother nature will follow this trend remains to be seen as this year has been anything but normal.

Joplin, MO Tornado among the top 10 deadliest tornadoes in U.S. history.
132 are dead in Joplin, MO after an EF-5 tornado with estimated winds exceeding 200mph obliterated 75% of the city shortly after 5:40pm CDT 5/22/11. 156 people are unaccounted for and the death toll is likely to creep higher in the coming days and weeks. SPC has deemed this tornado as the 8th deadliest U.S. tornado of all time and the deadliest since 1947 when a violent F-5 tornado killed 181 in Woodward, OK.

From left to right shows the base reflectivity and base velocity as the tornado was tearing through the southeastern sides of town. Notice the now infamous debris ball represented by the blob of higher dbzs indicating debris being lofted high into the atmosphere. These signatures are almost always associated with violent/damaging tornadoes and was also the case with Tuscaloosa, AL during the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak.

Two days later mother nature unleashed her fury again, this time in the southern plains with several large and long tracked tornadoes doing considerable damage to the southern and northwestern suburbs of Oklahoma City.

Tornado near Goldsby, OK during Tuesday's tornado outbreak in Oklahoma. Photo credit goes to Tim Eckstein.

A rare high risk for severe weather was issued Tuesday including a 45% hatched risk for large/violent tornadoes. The last time a 45% hatched risk for tornadoes was issued was back on April 27, 2011 during the busiest and most active tornado day in world history across the southeast. NWS Rick Smith says that a 45% hatched risk for tornadoes is a rarity and usually issued once every 5-10 years! Sure enough early in the afternoon supercells exploded along the dryline and approached the I-35 corridor with violent tornadoes during the evening rush hour. Several communities were hard hit, including Piedmont, El Reno, Binger, Chickasha, Newcastle, Blanchard, Moore, Washington, and Goldsby. These tornadoes were given preliminary ratings of EF-4 and higher ratings are possible according to the NWS as additional surveying is done.

Sadly 10 people also died in the tornadoes including the 3 year old boy who was found near Falcon lake after a mass search was underway prior to. A total of 16 people were killed all together in KS/OK/TX.

Mesonet station records rare data from El Reno Tornado.
The El Reno mesonet station recorded a wind gust of 151mph along the outer edge of the tornado during Tuesday's tornado outbreak. Data indicated a pressure drop to 940mb as the tornado approached. Such data is extremely rare given that usually these instruments fail in the event of high winds.

Here is our chase video from Tuesday. We were off to a late start due to work but managed to videotape a beautiful tornado near Goldsby, OK as it was roping out. Previously the tornado was much larger and did EF-4 damage. We continued to chase the supercells across south central Oklahoma the remainder of the evening witnessing several spectacular wall clouds. The close proximity of the storms later that evening created a lot of interference which prevented additional tornadoes farther east.

Tornado Outbreak Once Again!!

2011-05-25T09:58:00.000-05:00

After another tornado outbreak yesterday we are bracing for another tornado outbreak today. The storm prediction center has issued another high risk for severe weather for northeast Arkansas, southeast Missouri, western Tennessee and Kentucky and southern Illinois. This is where a 30 percent chance for tornadoes have been introduced but based out of the 12z sounding out of Little Rock, Arkansas it wouldn't surprise me to see a high risk introduced into central and eastern Arkansas by the next outlook. The sounding shows an already unstable air mass with 1900 j/kg cape, 500 helicity (potential for rotating winds) and energy helicity values at 7.

Right now a vorticity maxima is located over southern Kansas with a warm front extending from northern Missouri into Illinois and Indiana. Its south of the warm front where theres some breaks in the clouds and allowing things to go really wild. Meanwhile a cold front located east of Oklahoma City along with a dry line extending from the cold front. It's a rarity to get a dry line this far east but when it does look out cause things are going to go very wild. Later on as the day progresses, a warm, moist and extremely unstable airmass will reside across the region with cape values over 4000 j/kg likely. The combination of an extremely unstable airmass, helicity values over 250 M2^s2, 50-60 knots of shear with a 70 knot mid level speed max, and a low level jet cranking of 40 knots will create quite an ideal environment for tornadic supercells to develop. Once again this will be kind of environment also that can go from wallcloud to wedge tornado in minutes and some of them will be strong tornadoes- especially in the moderate and high risk area. Steep lapse rates and low freezing levels combined with extreme instability will also promote the growth of very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and wouldn't be surprised to see a few reports of softball sized hail either. Those in the threatened area will need to once again heed these warnings these will be fast moving!! I'll be posting updates as they occur on our facebook page. Congratulations to Zack also who was able to get a tornado yesterday even though it was brief. Unfortunately I wont be able to chase today.

Live Blog!! High Risk!! Violent Tornadoes Probable Today

2011-05-24T08:22:00.000-05:00

UPDATE: 7:32 PM CDT 5/24/11
Just a quick update that the isolated supercells that produced large violent tornadoes have finnally congealed into a line segment from Okfuskee County north to Washington county. These still show some characteristics of supercells but the rotation is not nearly as intense as what it has been but still rotating so the threat for tornadoes while it's still there is not nearly as big as it was earlier. Theres also some thunderstorms going on in the southern sections of the state where tornado warnings are in effect. Anywhere along a line from Ardmore to Pawnee and westword your threat is gone tonight. So with the threat for tornadoes diminishing somewhat and the threat for wind damage increasing this will conclude the live blog for tonight. However should tornado warnings start to re-genertate even more then they are now updates will be made to our facebook page accordingly. On a sad note 9 people have died today in Oklahoma and not surprisingly the tornado that hit Joplin has been upgraded to EF-5 which isn't suprising.

UPDATE: 6:32 PM CDT 5/24/11
Debris Falling near McCloud from a large wedge tornado on the ground again.

UPDATE 5:58 PM CDT 5/24/11
Cone tornado on the ground east of Dibble!

UPDATE: 5:42 PM CDT 5/24/11
A tornado emergency has been issued for southern Oklahoma City, Moore, Norman!! PLEASE take shelter IMMEDIATLY

UPDATE: 5:03 PM CDT 5/24/11
Reports of a diesal locomotive blown over with the same storm that went by El Reno- this is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation please take shelter even if its 1-2 counties away!! Tornado on the ground to the southwest of Chickasha!! Large tornado reported north of Chickasha

UPDATE: 4:17 PM CDT 5/24/11
LARGE violent tornado was located just west of El Reno!!

UPDATE: 3:58 PM CDT 5/24/11
Large tornado on the ground north or Watonga!!

UPDATE: 3:36 PM CDT 5/24/11
Funnel cloud reported near Eakly in Caddo County! Wedge tornado on the ground near Lookeba!

UPDATE: 3:26 PM CDT 5/24/11
Large tornado on the ground near Canton Take your tornado precautions NOW!!

UPDATE: 3:00 PM CDT 5/24/11
A wallcoud has been sighted with the supercell in Dewey County.

UPDATE 2:10PM CDT 5/24/11
Convection is rapidly developing across parts of south west and west central Oklahoma where a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for eastern Dewey and central Custer County. Tennis Ball sized hail and 60 mph winds are likely within this thunderstorm- radar is showing rotation within this storm near state route 33. Please note I cannot get every tornado warning and severe thunderstorm warning but when I see reports coming in you will be the first to know! Severe thunderstorm warnings will be found here. Tornado warnings can be found here.

UPDATE 1:45PM CDT 5/24/11
Recent radar trends and visible satellite imagery shows development is starting to occur in western Oklahoma between Washita and Custer Counties and just to the south of Altus. Within 10-20 minutes these storms should be tornadic.

UPDATE 1:03 PM CDT 5/24/11
Tornado watch 356 has been issued from 12:50 pm till 10 tonight. Hail to 3 inches, winds to 70 mph are possible in these areas. This watch is classified as a pds watch short for particularly dangerous situation where the threat for strong/long tracked tornadoes is high.

The above image is the watch and radar. Storm initiation is likely within the next 2-3 hours.

UPDATE: 12:25 PM CDT 5/24/11
A tornado watch will be issued very shortly as the storm prediction center is watching north central Texas into western Oklahoma for storm initiation in 2-3 hours.

UPDATE: 11:38 AM CDT 5/24/11
Just a quick update- the new day 1 convective outlook is out this is one of the strongest high risks I have seen personally in a while. 60 percent hatched for hail and wind- basically hatched means the threat for significant winds of greater then 75 mph and hail greater then 2. But the tornado threat is HIGHER

MAIN POST: 8:00 AM CDT 5/24/11

Good morning everyone. This is going to be a very dangerous day today as a rare high risk of severe weather today with the potential for large, long tracked and violent tornadoes.

This is the brand new tornado outlook from the folks at the storm prediction center. There's been a few changes since the last outlook the only real change I can see is the 15 hatched for tornadoes is now into the western 1/3rd of Arkansas. A very volatile airmass is expected to develop as the combination of strong surface heating aids in developing extreme amounts of instability. Instability forecasts by the RUC model is over 6000 j/kg once again as has been the case past few days. However the previous few days have not nearly had as much shear as is forecasted also. Below is the 500 mb heights/wind.

This is very impressive. You can clearly see the diffluant flow. Then the 90 knot jet max rounding the base of the shortwave that's going to aid in the development of very strong shear. What really worries me is the 0-3 km storm relative helicity values near the Oklahoma City Metro area which values are showing at over 550 m2^s2 which you can combine that with extreme instability values over 6000 j/kg you end up with energy helicity index values well over 12 which is just extreme because we really look for values above 1 for the small potential for tornadoes but when its over 12 your in trouble. Models are forecasting development right around the 4-5 pm time frame along the dryline which is dangerous because school is starting to get out which should be cancelled in high risk days IMO. With the presence of extreme instability, strong shear, strong low level shear thunderstorms that start to develop with rapidly become supercellular with extremely large hail, and destructive winds of 75-90 mph and strong to violent tornadoes. Later on in the night these supercell thunderstorms should eventually evolve into a bow echo with an enhanced wind damage potential with a few tornadoes and large hail possible. OSN WILL be chasing this event today with a target of Stillwater. This is the beginning of a live blog with updates later on in the day as storms start to fire up. Please heed these warnings!!